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Cardano (ADA) has been showing cautious price action this week, trading within a narrow range. But with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision on the Grayscale Cardano ETF looming, investors and traders are watching closely, hopeful for a breakout that could push ADA above the $1 mark.
ETF Approval Odds Surge to 71%
According to Polymarket, the odds of a Cardano ETF approval have jumped to 71% as of Tuesday, marking the highest probability since April 20. This optimism comes just days before the SEC’s May 29 deadline to rule on Grayscale’s proposed spot ADA ETF. The SEC is authorized to take up to 240 days to review this filing, with a final deadline of October 22. The regulator can also delay its decision multiple times, which makes a postponement more likely than an outright approval or rejection.
The growing anticipation around ADA’s ETF approval has reignited excitement in the market, especially considering the SEC’s recent delay of XRP ETF decisions. In mid-April, the chances of any ETF approval within 2025 were estimated at only 37% on Polymarket. The sharp increase to over 70% now signals heightened trader confidence.
Market Expert Views on the ETF
Eric Balchunas, a well-known ETF analyst at Bloomberg, projects a 75% chance that the Cardano ETF will be started before the end of this year. He also speculates that the SEC might approve multiple crypto ETFs, including ADA’s, as early as this summer. Balchunas’s positive outlook extends beyond Cardano; other altcoins such as XRP, Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) have also filed for spot ETFs and show strong chances of approval before 2025. Polymarket lists the odds as 84% for XRP, 83% for SOL, and 67% for DOGE.
Cardano’s Ecosystem Challenges
Despite the rising ETF optimism, Cardano still faces challenges within its ecosystem that could impact its long-term growth. Currently, the network supports only 48 decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and has a total value locked (TVL) of $443 million, which is modest compared to competitors. Additionally, Cardano holds a relatively low $31 million in stablecoins.
In contrast, newer blockchain projects like Unichain and Sonic are rapidly expanding and gaining traction, which may overshadow Cardano’s position in the DeFi and stablecoin sectors. These ecosystem limitations could temper ADA’s upside potential even if the ETF receives regulatory approval.
Technical Outlook for ADA
Technically, Cardano is showing signs of strength and a bullish setup on the weekly chart. The token is currently trading at $0.7524, comfortably above the 100-week moving average—a critical long-term support line. This suggests a solid base for upward momentum.
If Cardano sustains this momentum, it could retest its previous yearly high of $1.207. A decisive breakout above that level would open the door for ADA to aim for the $2 mark. However, not all technical signals are fully positive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 51, indicating no extreme buying or selling pressure. Meanwhile, the MACD and momentum indicators lean slightly bearish, hinting at short-term weakness.
Despite these minor setbacks, longer-term exponential moving averages (EMAs) — the 30-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day — remain bullish and provide strong support. These suggest that ADA is in a favorable position for a sustained rally if market conditions align.
What the SEC Decision Could Mean for ADA
The SEC’s verdict on the Grayscale Cardano ETF could act as a major catalyst for ADA’s price movement. Approval would likely boost investor confidence significantly and attract a wave of institutional investment, often considered a key factor for driving crypto prices higher.
If the ETF is approved, ADA could quickly surpass the $0.84 resistance level and trigger a fresh rally, possibly propelling it toward the $1 mark and beyond. On the other hand, a delay or rejection could cause short-term volatility and weigh on sentiment.
Conclusion: ADA at a Crossroads
Cardano is positioned at a crucial juncture as it awaits the SEC’s decision. The growing odds of ETF approval combined with bullish technical indicators paint an optimistic picture for ADA’s near future. However, challenges within its ecosystem and the possibility of regulatory delays add caution to the outlook.
Traders and investors will closely monitor the SEC’s May 29 deadline, which may set the tone for Cardano’s next major price move. Whether ADA breaks $1 hinges largely on this regulatory milestone and the market’s reaction to it.
For those keeping an eye on the crypto space, Cardano’s journey in the weeks ahead will be one of the most closely watched stories of 2025.
