Dogecoin Flashes Major Rebound Signal as Exchange Flows Flip, Analyst Warns

Dogecoin’s market structure is showing a potentially bullish shift after key on-chain metrics flipped for the first time in months. According to analyst Ali Martinez, fresh data from Glassnode suggests DOGE may be entering an early rebound phase — but the price still sits dangerously close to a critical support zone.

Exchange Flows Flip Positive for the First Time in Months

Martinez highlighted a notable change in Dogecoin’s exchange behavior. Glassnode’s “DOGE: Exchange Net Position Change – All Exchanges” chart shows that net flows have turned positive again — meaning more DOGE is now moving onto exchanges than leaving.

Historically, this transition from sustained outflows to strong inflows has preceded major price rebounds.

From mid-2024 to late-2024, DOGE saw alternating small red and green inflow cycles before a strong cluster of green bars appeared in Q4. During that period, billions of DOGE flowed onto exchanges monthly, and the price surged from under $0.10 to a local peak near $0.48.

However, 2025 painted a different picture. Throughout the year, exchange flows became mixed, and price movement narrowed into a broad range between $0.12 and $0.30. As the year progressed, DOGE entered a clear outflow phase — with as much as −5 to −6 billion DOGE leaving exchanges each month — contributing to a gradual price decline.

The latest data shows the first tall green bar after months of persistent red. Martinez notes that such a flip has “marked sharp rebounds before,” signaling that traders are repositioning and possibly preparing for a directional shift.

DOGE Trading Below $0.16 With Limited Support

Despite the positive exchange shift, Dogecoin remains on fragile ground. Martinez shared a second chart — a UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) — that maps where DOGE’s circulating supply last moved on-chain.

The chart highlights a massive concentration of 27.4 billion DOGE accumulated around $0.08, which the analyst calls the asset’s “most significant support level.”

This zone, between $0.07 and $0.08, is marked by a single large bar representing 18.62% of the measured supply. Above this, the support structure is thin. The URPD shows only minor pockets of activity at $0.096, $0.125, and $0.155 — creating a noticeable price “gap.”

Martinez warns that “below $0.16, support for Dogecoin disappears quickly,” making DOGE vulnerable to sharp downside moves if bearish pressure continues. The next meaningful demand block sits all the way back at $0.07.

This places current price levels in a high-risk zone. If DOGE fails to hold the $0.15–$0.16 region, a deeper correction toward the high-volume historical base becomes likely.

Cost-Basis Heatmap Shows DOGE Trapped Between Two Major Cohorts

A third chart — the cost-basis distribution heatmap — offers additional clarity about Dogecoin’s current position. The heatmap highlights two major holder clusters:

• Lower cohort: Between $0.0812 and $0.0827, containing more than 27.3 billion DOGE

• Upper cohort: Between $0.2010 and $0.2048, holding over 12.1 billion DOGE

These zones represent areas where large groups of holders last purchased tokens. Historically, prices tend to return to these levels due to concentrated liquidity and strong psychological anchoring.

This means DOGE is effectively trapped between two thick walls:

• A strong realized floor near $0.08,

• And a heavy resistance cluster around $0.20.

With exchange flows turning positive, traders are watching closely to see if momentum can carry DOGE back toward the upper cohort.

Is a Dogecoin Rebound Coming?

Analysts caution that while the exchange flow flip is a promising sign, it is not a guaranteed signal of reversal. What makes this moment notable is that:

1. Flows have flipped during a price slump, not a rally.

2. Dogecoin is sitting at a thinly supported price zone.

3. A major demand block exists significantly lower, at $0.07–$0.08.

If buyers defend the $0.15–$0.16 region and capitalize on improving exchange trends, DOGE could attempt a recovery toward $0.20 — the next major resistance band.

However, failure to hold current levels may send price cascading into the lower accumulation range, where long-term holders historically re-enter.

Final Outlook

Dogecoin now stands at a critical pivot point. On-chain analysis shows:

• Positive exchange flows, often a precursor to rebounds

• Weak support between $0.08 and $0.16

• Heavy cost-basis clusters that frame DOGE’s long-term structure

While the ingredients for a rebound are forming, DOGE remains at risk unless bulls defend the current zone. Traders, particularly those watching on-chain signals, now see the next few days as pivotal in shaping Dogecoin’s direction for the remainder of 2025.