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Dogecoin (DOGE) is back under pressure after a strong performance in July, sliding alongside the broader crypto market. The recent price drop has seen DOGE lose its hold above the critical $0.20 level. However, analysts remain optimistic, pointing to a historical pattern on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) that could hint at an incoming bullish reversal.
Dogecoin Faces Renewed Selling Pressure
After gaining over 27% in July, Dogecoin has started August on a weaker note. According to data from CryptoRank, the token has already dipped by more than 5% this month, erasing part of last month’s gains. August has historically been a difficult month for DOGE, with an average decline of around 10%. This aligns with the current trend, as DOGE struggles to maintain momentum above $0.20.
Despite this weakness, technical indicators suggest that a recovery may not be far off.
4HR RSI Nearing Bullish Threshold
A new analysis shared by crypto chartist KrissPax draws attention to Dogecoin’s 4-hour RSI, which is approaching the oversold threshold below 30. This level has historically signaled a potential price bottom for DOGE. The last time Dogecoin’s RSI fell below 30 on the 4-hour timeframe was in June 2025. Following that dip, the altcoin rallied more than 70% over the next few weeks.
If the same pattern plays out again, Dogecoin may be gearing up for another substantial move to the upside.
What makes this setup even more notable is that DOGE’s current price—hovering around $0.20—is significantly higher than the $0.14 level seen during the last RSI dip. This suggests a pattern of higher lows, often a bullish signal that precedes stronger rallies.
Higher Lows Could Lead to Higher Highs
KrissPax highlights the bullish implications of Dogecoin establishing a higher low. In technical analysis, this pattern often signals upward momentum and the potential for higher highs in the future.
Based on previous movements, a 70% rally from current levels could push Dogecoin up to approximately $0.34. While this would still leave DOGE about 50% below its all-time high of $0.74 from 2021, it would mark a significant short-term gain and could reignite investor interest.
Historical Patterns Support Cautious Optimism
Looking back, Dogecoin has shown a tendency to rebound strongly from RSI oversold levels, especially on the 4-hour chart. If this trend continues, investors may soon see a recovery phase begin. However, it’s also important to consider seasonal factors—August tends to be a bearish month, which could limit short-term upside.
So far, DOGE has held support around the $0.20 mark, which remains a crucial psychological level for bulls. A sustained drop below this zone could delay any bullish RSI divergence from playing out, while a quick bounce from this region could confirm the historical pattern.
Final Thoughts: DOGE at a Technical Crossroads
Dogecoin is approaching a potentially critical moment. The RSI falling below 30 on the 4-hour chart has historically been a reliable signal for bullish reversals in DOGE’s price action. With the price currently forming a higher low around $0.20, the technical setup mirrors previous cycles where significant rallies followed.
Still, broader market sentiment and seasonal weakness in August could cap gains in the near term. Traders should monitor the RSI and the $0.20 support zone closely. A confirmed bounce from these levels might offer an early entry for those expecting another 70% rally.
If history repeats itself, Dogecoin’s RSI dip could once again be the calm before the storm—a bullish storm that drives prices sharply higher.
