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Ethereum can’t seem to catch a break. The second-largest crypto by market cap is grinding near $1,800, trying to shake off a stretch of weakness that dragged prices down to $1,500 not long ago — and the next few sessions probably matter more than most traders realize.
The $1,800 zone isn’t just a round number people fixate on. Analyst Ali Martinez has flagged it as a genuinely hard ceiling right now, one where the 0.8 MVRV Pricing Band sits and acts as resistance. His read: Ethereum needs a daily candle close above that level, and then it needs to hold above it as support on a retest. If that sequence plays out, the next logical target becomes Ethereum’s Realized Price of $2,245. That’s a meaningful jump from current levels. And it’s worth keeping in mind that ETH hasn’t traded above $2,000 in over a month — the last time it touched its Realized Price was mid-May, which feels like a long time ago now.
The $1,796–$1,816 Range That Could Break Things Open
Martinez gets more specific than just “$1,800.” He’s watching a tighter window — the $1,796 to $1,816 range — where the TD Sequential resistance trendline also runs. That cluster of technical pressure in a narrow band is kind of the whole story right now. A clean break through that range, per Martinez, could ignite a bullish breakout and push Ethereum toward the $1,844 channel top. From there, the $2,000 psychological level comes into view.
Not everyone is convinced it’s that clean, though.
Analyst Ted Pillows agrees with the general framework but adds some nuance. He saw Ethereum test the $1,820–$1,850 resistance area recently — and get rejected. That rejection wasn’t catastrophic, but it wasn’t nothing either. His take: as long as ETH holds above $1,750, the setup for a surge to $2,000 stays intact. Lose $1,750, and the picture changes fast. So there’s basically a floor and a ceiling that traders are staring at simultaneously, waiting for one of them to break.
Copper, Gold, and What a Commodity Chart Has to Do With Ethereum
Michaël van de Poppe is watching something most crypto traders probably aren’t: the copper/gold ratio. He uses it as a business cycle indicator — copper tends to rise when industrial demand is strong and risk appetite is healthy, while gold rises when fear dominates. The ratio between the two can signal where we are in the broader economic cycle.
Van de Poppe says the copper/gold chart recently broke out from a lengthy downtrend. That’s the kind of move that, historically, has preceded stronger momentum in risk assets. He sees it as a sign that crypto markets are poised to gain momentum, with Ethereum potentially following suit — though with a time lag, since market confidence takes a while to build and flow into altcoins.
He’s pointed to the market cycles of 2017 and 2021 as periods when this correlation was evident. It was absent in 2024, which maybe explains some of the choppiness that year. The recent shift in the copper/gold chart, if the pattern holds, could be an early signal that conditions are turning more favorable for Ethereum’s trajectory.
That said, correlations like this aren’t guarantees. They’re context. And right now, the context seems to be shifting in a direction that bulls would welcome.
What Ethereum Needs Right Now
Strip away the indicators and the ratios, and the situation is pretty straightforward. Ethereum is sitting just under a resistance cluster that’s been rejecting it. It’s managed to stay above $1,750, which analysts read as resilience. And there are macro signals — at least one of them — that suggest broader risk appetite may be improving.
But ETH hasn’t closed above $1,800 with conviction yet. It hasn’t held the $1,820–$1,850 zone. And it hasn’t traded above $2,000 in over a month.
The MVRV Pricing Band, the TD Sequential trendline, the $1,844 channel top — these are all layers that need to get cleared, one by one, before the $2,245 Realized Price becomes a realistic near-term conversation. Pillows thinks holding $1,750 keeps the door open. Martinez thinks the $1,796–$1,816 break is the trigger. Van de Poppe thinks the macro backdrop is quietly shifting in Ethereum’s favor.
All three are basically watching the same door. It just hasn’t opened yet.
Ethereum last touched its Realized Price of $2,245 in mid-May.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Ethereum’s key resistance level right now?
Analyst Ali Martinez has identified the $1,796–$1,816 range as the critical resistance zone, where the 0.8 MVRV Pricing Band and the TD Sequential resistance trendline converge.
What price target do analysts see if Ethereum breaks above $1,800?
A confirmed daily close above $1,800 that then holds as support could push Ethereum toward its Realized Price of $2,245, per Martinez’s analysis.
