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Hedera (HBAR) is showing early signs of recovery after a period of heavy selling pressure, with key on-chain and technical indicators pointing toward a potential rebound. After a recent crypto market downturn, HBAR price has risen more than 9% in the past 24 hours, partially offsetting a 15% weekly loss.
While the token remains down approximately 20% over the last three months, evidence suggests the trend may be shifting from a steep decline to the beginnings of a recovery phase, driven largely by large holders and reduced retail selling.
Easing Selling Pressure Signals Opportunity
One of the most telling signs of HBAR’s potential recovery is the sharp reduction in selling pressure on exchanges. According to data from Coinglass, exchange inflows — which measure the number of tokens sent to exchanges for selling — fell from $4.43 million to just $517,000. This represents an 88% decrease, indicating that fewer holders are offloading their positions and short-term panic has likely subsided.
This reduction in selling pressure has been particularly significant since October 11, suggesting that the market may be stabilizing after recent turbulence. The easing of outflows is seen as a positive sign, providing a foundation for larger holders to influence market direction.
Whales Step In to Support Price
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks large wallet activity, has turned strongly positive, now reading around 0.10. This confirms that significant holders are adding funds to their positions instead of exiting. Notably, the CMF began rising around October 7 and remained resilient throughout the HBAR price drop, suggesting that major investors maintained confidence even during the market downturn.
The positive CMF readings indicate that accumulation by whales may be offsetting broader selling pressures, creating an early-stage floor for the token. This accumulation phase could be critical for setting the stage for a potential rebound.
Retail Participation Remains Low
While whales appear to be supporting the market, retail participation has been comparatively muted. The Money Flow Index (MFI), which reflects overall trading activity including retail flows, is trending lower. This divergence between large holders and smaller traders suggests that whales are currently the primary force countering selling pressure.
If retail traders re-enter the market in the coming days, it could provide additional momentum for HBAR’s rebound, amplifying the price recovery and creating a stronger market uptrend.
Technical Indicators Show Early Reversal Signs
The HBAR price charts also reflect a potential turnaround. After weeks of downward momentum, the token’s three-month, 20% decline is showing signs of slowing. While prices remain below a descending trendline, several technical indicators hint at weakening bearish momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a bullish divergence, a key early signal of a possible reversal. Between June 22 and October 10, HBAR’s price made a lower low due to the crash, but the RSI formed a higher low. This indicates that while prices were still falling, the rate of selling pressure had weakened, which often precedes a recovery phase.
Key Resistance and Support Levels
For HBAR to confirm a sustained rebound, the next critical level is $0.22. A breakout above this resistance, which has capped multiple recovery attempts over the past months, could pave the way for a move toward $0.25. If momentum continues, the token might even reach $0.30 in the near term.
However, the structure remains fragile as long as HBAR trades below the descending trendline. A drop below $0.16 would undermine the current rebound setup, potentially exposing the next significant support at $0.14. Buyers would need to step in at this level to prevent deeper losses and stabilize the token.
Outlook and Market Implications
The current HBAR price dynamics illustrate the critical role of whale activity in stabilizing markets during periods of high volatility. By absorbing supply and reducing sell-offs, large holders can create conditions for a potential recovery even when retail sentiment remains cautious.
Investors should monitor exchange inflows, CMF trends, and RSI signals closely, as these metrics provide early insights into market direction. If accumulation by large holders continues and retail participation picks up, HBAR may be poised for a sustained rebound.
Overall, while challenges remain, the easing of selling pressure and early accumulation signals suggest that HBAR could see a gradual recovery, with the $0.25 mark representing a realistic near-term target if current trends hold.
