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The cryptocurrency market has slipped back into a bearish mood after a short-lived recovery earlier this week, but Hedera’s native token HBAR is drawing attention as positive developments around global payments and blockchain adoption give it a unique edge. Despite broader weakness, analysts believe HBAR could soon retest the $0.25 mark, with institutional interest and ongoing SWIFT blockchain trials providing momentum.
Market Struggles Hold Back HBAR
At press time, HBAR is trading near $0.235, down about 1.2% in the last 24 hours. The dip comes as the overall crypto market battles selling pressure sparked by the release of hawkish Federal Reserve minutes. Recent inflation data and the Fed’s stance have reduced hopes of a September rate cut, leading to widespread declines across digital assets.
Bitcoin slipped below $113,000, while Ethereum continues to hover around $4,200, struggling to regain bullish momentum. This negative sentiment has weighed on altcoins, including HBAR, even as project-specific news paints a brighter picture.
SWIFT Blockchain Trials Spotlight Hedera
The most significant development for Hedera this week comes from the international payments giant SWIFT. The organization has officially launched live blockchain trials, with Hedera featuring among the networks being tested.
For Hedera, this represents a major step in expanding its role within global finance. SWIFT is the backbone of international banking, connecting over 11,000 financial institutions worldwide. Its move toward blockchain integration signals the growing recognition of distributed ledger technology in reshaping cross-border settlements.
If Hedera proves to be a strong fit for SWIFT’s needs, it could see long-term adoption benefits and greater credibility within institutional finance.
Grayscale Trust Signals Institutional Interest
Adding to the bullish narrative, asset management firm Grayscale has filed a Delaware trust for HBAR. Market watchers believe this could be the first step toward creating a spot HBAR exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States.
Grayscale’s involvement is notable because the firm already manages some of the largest crypto investment products in the market, including trusts for Bitcoin and Ethereum. An HBAR trust or ETF would open the door for more institutional investors to gain exposure to the asset, potentially fueling demand.
While the filing doesn’t guarantee approval, it reflects growing institutional interest in Hedera’s ecosystem and its potential role in blockchain adoption beyond traditional crypto use cases.
Technical Picture: Bearish But Poised for Rebound
Looking at the technical charts, HBAR’s short-term outlook remains bearish. The 4-hour chart shows that sellers currently dominate the market. The MACD lines sit in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads at 42, indicating bearish momentum without yet reaching oversold levels.
If selling pressure persists, HBAR could fall below yesterday’s low and retest the monthly support at $0.22461. A failure to hold this zone could open the path for a deeper decline toward the $0.19 level.
On the other hand, positive ecosystem news could help bulls regain control. A rebound from support may push HBAR toward the 4-hour TLQ resistance at $0.243, with a realistic chance of retesting $0.25 in the near term. This would mark the second attempt at breaking that level this week.
Broader Market Context
While project-specific factors are supportive, HBAR’s near-term trajectory is still tied to the wider market trend. Macro pressures from U.S. monetary policy remain the dominant force. Any fresh signals from the Federal Reserve hinting at policy easing could act as a trigger for renewed crypto momentum.
In addition, Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim lost ground will likely dictate sentiment across altcoins. If Bitcoin stabilizes above $113,000 and Ethereum builds strength, HBAR and other smaller assets could enjoy stronger upward pressure.
Long-Term Outlook for Hedera
Despite short-term volatility, Hedera has been steadily expanding its footprint in the enterprise blockchain space. With use cases ranging from supply chain tracking to tokenization and carbon credit verification, the network continues to attract institutional and corporate partners.
The involvement of SWIFT is particularly significant, as it indicates recognition from one of the largest financial communication systems in the world. If Hedera secures a role in SWIFT’s blockchain integration, it could cement itself as a leader in enterprise-grade distributed ledger technology.
Combined with the potential of a Grayscale-backed trust or ETF, HBAR may gradually evolve into a more institutionally recognized digital asset, rather than just a speculative altcoin.
Conclusion
HBAR’s short-term price action may look bearish, but the fundamentals tell a different story. SWIFT’s blockchain trials and Grayscale’s trust filing provide strong signals of institutional interest and global adoption.
If HBAR manages to hold above key support levels, the token could soon retest $0.25, with the potential for further gains if broader market conditions improve. For investors keeping an eye on enterprise-focused blockchain projects, Hedera’s HBAR remains one of the most promising assets to watch in 2025.
