Hedera Traders, Brace for HBAR’s 20% Price Drop ONLY IF

Hedera [HBAR] has long been seen as one of the more “stable” altcoins when compared to its peers, owing to its enterprise partnerships, governance council, and active ecosystem development. However, stability in crypto is always relative, and as August 2025 draws to a close, market signals suggest that Hedera’s native token could be on the brink of a sharp move — one that might erase nearly 20% of its recent gains.

HBAR slips as bearish sentiment spreads

On 29 August, HBAR’s price slipped by 4.75% to trade at $0.2290, underlining the weak sentiment in the broader crypto market. This dip came after Bitcoin [BTC] and Ethereum [ETH] — the market’s largest movers — both registered declines over the past 24 hours, triggering a ripple effect across altcoins.

While sideways action has defined HBAR’s trading range for the last week, technical analysts are now paying close attention to support levels that could decide the token’s short-term fate.

At first glance, trading volume appeared supportive, having surged by more than 45% during the same period. However, a closer look at derivatives data revealed a more troubling narrative.

Bears pile in with nearly $3 million in shorts

According to CoinGlass data, bearish traders have significantly increased their exposure to HBAR. Short positions totaled $2.96 million, compared to only $832,000 in long positions.

This imbalance suggests that traders have little faith in HBAR’s ability to mount a meaningful rebound at current levels. Moreover, major liquidation levels clustered around $0.2249 and $0.2324 highlight the areas where traders expect sharp moves to trigger liquidations.

In other words, if HBAR drops below $0.223, it could unleash a cascade of sell pressure that amplifies the downside.

The descending triangle — a familiar warning sign

Technically, HBAR has been forming a descending triangle pattern on the daily charts. This bearish formation is often a precursor to breakdowns, especially when retested multiple times.

HBAR has already bounced off the key $0.226 support zone more than six times in the past, signaling that bulls are defending the level. However, each retest weakens the base, raising the odds of a final breakdown.

If a daily candle closes below $0.223, analysts warn that HBAR could slide as much as 20%, putting the next support in the $0.18 range firmly in play.

Technical indicators paint a mixed picture

Despite the bearish chart pattern, not all signals are grim.

• The Supertrend Indicator remains in the green, sitting below HBAR’s price — traditionally a bullish sign suggesting that an uptrend is still technically intact.

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 43.8, placing HBAR in neutral territory. It’s neither oversold nor overbought, which implies that the market has room to swing either way depending on sentiment.

This duality means that while technicals point toward a potential breakdown, there’s still enough indecision in the market to give bulls a chance at defending key levels.

Exchange outflows — the one bullish lifeline

If there’s one factor that could offset bearish dominance, it’s the recent uptick in exchange outflows.

Coinglass data revealed that $3.18 million worth of HBAR left centralized exchanges this week. Large outflows typically hint at accumulation, as tokens moved off exchanges are less likely to be sold immediately.

This move could indicate that some traders or institutional players are positioning for long-term accumulation, even as short-term charts signal weakness.

If accumulation continues, it could create a buffer against rapid sell-offs, slowing down or even preventing the projected 20% decline.

What traders should watch next

Going forward, traders need to keep their eyes on three key factors:

1. Daily candle close at $0.223 – A close below this level could confirm the descending triangle breakdown.

2. Exchange flows – Continued outflows would strengthen the bullish accumulation narrative, while a reversal back to inflows would favor bears.

3. Broader market sentiment – Bitcoin and Ethereum remain the biggest influencers. Any renewed strength from BTC above $60k or ETH reclaiming $3,000 could shift sentiment back in favor of altcoins like HBAR.

Bottom line

Hedera’s HBAR is currently standing at a critical crossroads. Bears are pressing their advantage with nearly $3 million in shorts, while a descending triangle threatens to push the price toward the $0.18 mark. Yet, bullish cues from the Supertrend indicator and significant exchange outflows provide some hope that buyers may still step in to defend support.

For now, traders should brace for heightened volatility. HBAR’s trajectory will likely be decided within the coming days — and whether it breaks down or bounces could define its September momentum.