Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE has posted an impressive 12% gain over the past week, securing a top spot among the best performers in the crypto top 20. However, the recent momentum faces critical challenges as HYPE struggles to maintain its upward trajectory in the face of declining demand and key technical hurdles.

The price surge brought HYPE to the $39 level—a zone that previously acted as resistance. Although it briefly pushed above this mid-range barrier, the bullish momentum quickly faded. Market participants are now watching closely to see whether Hyperliquid can sustain its bullish setup and build the volume necessary to reach its next target near $45.

Trading Volume Holds Steady, But Buyer Conviction Is Weak

Hyperliquid’s decentralized exchange (DEX) has shown consistent trading volume, a positive sign that the platform is maintaining user engagement. Data from Dune Analytics indicates that daily volumes remain in line with levels observed back in February, suggesting steady participation from existing users.

Additionally, the number of new users has seen a notable rise over the last two months. While increased user adoption is often a bullish indicator, the lack of corresponding growth in token demand has raised concerns about HYPE’s ability to sustain its rally.

Despite the healthy exchange metrics, HYPE’s actual trading volume has been tapering off. The On-Balance Volume (OBV), a key indicator of volume flow, has remained largely flat since HYPE’s bounce from $36. This lack of volume support during a price recovery typically suggests that buyers are hesitant, casting doubt on the longevity of any upward moves.

Technical Structure Still Intact, But Pressure Mounts

From a technical perspective, HYPE continues to maintain a bullish market structure. On June 28, it climbed above $37.25—a key level that previously served as resistance. This breakout shifted the near-term trend to the upside.

Since late May, HYPE has been trading within a horizontal range between $31 and $44.8. The mid-range level, around $37.9, now acts as a support level. Holding above this zone would strengthen the case for a continuation toward the range high near $45. However, without stronger buying pressure, the chances of a breakout toward that level remain limited.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart currently sits around 56, indicating mild bullish momentum. While not overbought, the RSI leaves room for further gains. Still, unless demand increases significantly, HYPE may struggle to advance meaningfully from its current position.

Liquidation Patterns Reflect Bullish Sentiment, But It’s Fragile

Coinglass data shows that the recent price movement from $36 to $39 triggered a notable number of short liquidations, indicating that bearish traders were caught off guard. On the flip side, there were very few long liquidations, suggesting that bullish traders are holding their positions despite the stalling momentum.

Open Interest has climbed by 4% in the past 24 hours, and funding rates remain positive—both signs that market participants are leaning bullish in the short term. These indicators imply that there’s still confidence in the market, though it may be fragile if not backed by real buying activity.

Market Sentiment Hinges on Bitcoin’s Movement

As with many altcoins, Hyperliquid’s performance is partially influenced by broader market sentiment, especially Bitcoin’s price action. If BTC maintains its current upward trend, it could lift overall market optimism, helping HYPE attract more buyers.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin enters a consolidation or correction phase, HYPE’s thin demand levels could leave it vulnerable to a sharp pullback. Therefore, traders are likely to monitor BTC closely before placing high-conviction bets on HYPE’s next move.

Conclusion: Eyes on Volume, Not Just Price

While Hyperliquid’s fundamentals—steady DEX usage and user growth—remain solid, the token’s price action tells a more cautious story. The failed attempt to hold above $39 highlights the weakness in demand, even amid technical support for a bullish scenario.

For HYPE to have a real shot at reaching $45, it must attract greater buying interest. Until that happens, any rally is likely to face resistance and potential reversals.

The current setup may still appeal to short-term traders betting on another leg higher, but without an increase in trading volume and user-driven demand, Hyperliquid’s path forward could remain uncertain.