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Hyperliquid’s native token is under mounting pressure as it nears a major supply event that could shape price action over the coming weeks. The token has been sliding for more than a month, and that trend now intersects with a large insider unlock, raising uncertainty among traders who are watching both technical and on-chain developments closely.
Hyperliquid traded around $35.24 at press time, slipping 1.7% over the previous 24 hours and extending its monthly decline to 27%. From its September peak of $59, the token has now dropped 41%, placing it back into a critical price area that has repeatedly acted as short-term support.
But this time, the support zone is weakening. The market is now entering what many analysts describe as a pressure point — one driven not only by technical structure but by supply factors.
Trading Activity Reveals Cautious Positioning
Spot trading volume fell 36% in the past day to $271 million. Derivatives market data reflects the same cooling tone: futures volume dropped nearly 30% to $1.12 billion, while open interest slid 5% to $1.43 billion.
Together, the reductions suggest traders are trimming exposure rather than building fresh positions ahead of tomorrow’s event. The conservative stance reinforces the view that the market is preparing for short-term instability rather than upside speculation.
A Token Unlock That Overshadows Buybacks
According to Tokenomist data, 9.92 million HYPE tokens — worth roughly $351.5 million — are scheduled to unlock on November 29. Representing 2.66% of circulating supply, the release is allocated to early insiders and core contributors who received locked distributions during the November 2024 Token Generation Event.
Notably, Hyperliquid recently unstaked 2.6 million tokens. While the team has not confirmed any link to the unlock, traders speculate that the move could be tied to upcoming liquidity needs. So far, only 37% of the total token supply has been unlocked, and this is the largest remaining cliff event in the near term.
Hyperliquid’s Assistance Fund has been one of the most aggressive accumulators of HYPE throughout 2025, directing trading-fee revenue toward token repurchases totaling more than $600 million. On most days, these buybacks range from $2 million to $5 million — usually strong enough to ease selling pressure.
However, the size of this week’s unlock — more than 60 times the scale of daily buybacks — raises the possibility that the market will face temporary imbalance even if the buyback program continues at the same pace.
Technical Structure Reinforces Caution
From a price-chart perspective, Hyperliquid remains locked in a descending channel that has guided movement since August. The pattern has unfolded consistently — each rally has topped out lower than the previous one, and each pullback has printed a lower low. The declines have been gradual rather than sudden, forming a controlled downtrend rather than a capitulation event.
Price currently sits near a mid-channel zone between $33 and $35. This shelf has absorbed sell pressure several times over the past three months but has shown visible deterioration lately. If bears push the daily close below this area, the next technical landing zone lies in the $28–30 region near the lower channel boundary.
Momentum indicators echo the trend. The Relative Strength Index has remained below the midpoint for most of the last quarter and continues to form lower highs, showing weak buying participation. Attempts to rebound toward neutral territory fade quickly. Meanwhile, market reactions to minor price rallies have been shallow rather than forceful.
Two Scenarios Traders Are Watching
The current setup leaves traders weighing two primary outcomes:
Bullish scenario
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Support at $33–35 holds through the unlock
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The supply event is absorbed without aggressive selling
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Traders attempt a recovery toward the descending channel’s upper boundary
This outcome would require strong demand, unexpected buying participation, or lower selling pressure than anticipated.
Bearish scenario
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Cautious sentiment meets heavy supply
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The $33–35 region fails after the unlock
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Price slides toward the lower channel around $28–30 before forming a base
Many analysts view this scenario as more probable unless meaningful buyers step in.
Why the Unlock Matters More Than the Chart Alone
Token unlocks do not always trigger declines. In some cases, recipients hold instead of selling, or liquidity programs absorb new supply. The outcome depends on market environment, positioning and sentiment — and right now, those factors are tilted toward caution.
The critical unknown is how much of the unlocked volume will make it to secondary markets. With trading activity already cooling, even modest selling could weigh on price. Conversely, if insiders hold, short-term pressure could fade quickly.
Regardless of direction, traders widely agree that this unlock represents an inflection point rather than a typical trading day.
Final Outlook
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Hyperliquid trades around $35, down 41% from its peak and sitting near weakening support.
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Spot and futures activity show reduced risk appetite heading into the unlock.
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A $351M insider release is scheduled for November 29 — more than 60 times the scale of daily buybacks.
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Chart structure points to persistent downside pressure unless support holds.
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A breakdown below $33–35 exposes the $28–30 zone, while a strong absorption could open a recovery attempt.
For now, the market’s message remains clear: participants are defensive, liquidity is thinning, and the next 48 hours are likely to determine whether Hyperliquid stabilizes — or whether the descending channel continues to dictate price direction.
