Hyperliquid’s HYPE Token Faces 33% Drop Risk as Hayes Targets $150

HYPE has had a wild 2026. The token is up 130% for the year and tacked on another 55% in just the past week — but crypto analyst Ali Martinez thinks the easy money might be running out fast.

Martinez posted his concerns on X, pointing to a cluster of technical sell signals that, taken together, have a pretty ugly historical track record. He flagged three specific triggers: an active TD Sequential Combo 13 sell signal, an imminent standard green 9 sell signal, and both the Relative Strength Index and the Chande Momentum Oscillator pushing into elevated territory at the same time. Combinations like that have, historically, preceded sharp corrections. Martinez’s read is that HYPE could squeeze up to $59–$60 before rolling over, and a rejection in that band would probably set off a 33% pullback — dragging the token back toward $40. As of the time of writing, HYPE was hovering near $56, sitting just below that resistance zone.

Not a comfortable place to be holding a leveraged long.

Arthur Hayes Is Watching This Closely

What makes the setup more interesting — and higher stakes — is who’s sitting on the other side of it. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has publicly disclosed significant positions in both HYPE and ZCash. His price targets are aggressive: $150 for HYPE and $10,000 for ZCash. Those numbers aren’t small bets. They’re basically a declaration that Hayes thinks both assets have a lot further to run, and that the current resistance zones are just bumps in a longer bull trend.

But Martinez’s signals don’t care about anyone’s targets. If the $59–$60 zone holds as resistance, Hayes’ HYPE position faces a rough near-term stretch before any $150 scenario becomes realistic. And traders are watching his moves closely — when someone with Hayes’ profile takes a public position at this scale, it adds a layer of complexity to how other market participants read the chart.

The resistance zones identified by Martinez could be a decisive test for those investments, and observers aren’t shy about saying so.

ZCash Is Flashing the Same Warnings

HYPE isn’t the only asset Martinez is worried about. ZCash has its own problems right now.

After a weekly surge of over 40%, ZCash is closing in on a resistance zone between $700 and $730 — a level that, per Martinez, previously led to a major pullback back in November. The TD Sequential sell signal is showing up on the weekly chart there too, which is the kind of thing that tends to make traders nervous. If ZCash gets rejected at that zone, Martinez sees initial support around $500, with a deeper decline toward $380 if selling pressure builds.

More context: Hyperliquid Short Seller Sits on $22M Loss as HYPE Nears All-Time High

That’s a potential 46% drop from the top of the resistance band. Not a small correction.

And the parallel between HYPE and ZCash isn’t lost on anyone watching both charts. Two assets, both with significant Hayes exposure, both approaching critical resistance at roughly the same time, both flashing similar technical sell signals. It’s the kind of convergence that makes even bullish traders hedge a little.

For Hayes specifically, that’s a complicated spot. His $10,000 ZCash target implies he’s got a long runway in mind, but the near-term technical picture is murky at best. Whether the $700–$730 zone holds or cracks will probably tell us a lot about how the next few weeks play out for ZCash holders.

What Traders Are Bracing For

Markets are rarely clean. HYPE consolidating around $56 feels like a coiled spring — it can break either way, and the resistance zone at $59–$60 is the obvious trigger point. A clean break above that level would invalidate a chunk of Martinez’s bearish case and could put Hayes’ $150 target back in the conversation. A rejection there, and the $40 support level becomes the next real test.

The broader context matters too. Stablecoin adoption and on-chain derivatives volume across major platforms have grown sharply, meaning more capital is sitting in perpetuals and structured positions than in previous cycles. That kind of market depth can amplify moves in both directions when key technical levels break — faster rallies, but also faster liquidation cascades.

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Martinez’s analysis doesn’t say HYPE is done. It says HYPE is at a decision point, and the signals lean toward caution right now. That’s a different thing.

ZCash’s weekly surge of over 40% is the kind of move that attracts attention but also invites profit-taking. The resistance zone at $700–$730 is where that dynamic gets resolved. Support at $500, deeper risk at $380 — those aren’t invented numbers, they’re where Martinez sees buyers stepping back in if things go wrong.

HYPE sits at $56. The $59–$60 zone is close.