Ripple Labs, the company behind the XRP token, has faced ongoing legal battles with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over the classification of its token as a security. The most recent development came in August 2024 when U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres ordered Ripple to pay a $125 million fine for violating SEC regulations by failing to register its past institutional sales of XRP. This ruling was a significant part of the long-running case that began in late 2020 when the SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple, accusing the company of conducting an unregistered securities offering. The case has drawn massive attention from the crypto community, as its outcome could have broad implications for the regulation of cryptocurrencies in the United States.

However, a recent legal prediction by attorney Fred Rispoli, the founder of Hodl Law, suggests that Ripple may not ultimately have to pay the full $125 million fine. Speaking on the Thinking Crypto Podcast, Rispoli speculated that Ripple could end up paying a significantly smaller penalty, potentially in the range of $10 to $12 million. Rispoli’s insight comes on the heels of the SEC’s decision to drop its appeal against Ripple’s case, which deviates from what many legal experts had expected.

In April 2024, Ripple had proposed a settlement that included a much lower fine of $10 million, which aligns closely with Rispoli’s prediction. At that time, Ripple had also requested that the SEC’s demands for disgorgement and prejudgment interest be dismissed, further signaling its intent to negotiate a reduced penalty. While the SEC initially sought a hefty $2 billion in remedies, Judge Torres’ decision to impose a $125 million fine was a significant step in the case. However, with the SEC dropping its appeal, it seems likely that Ripple will soon see this amount reduced to a figure much closer to its initial proposal.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse confirmed that the company had already partially complied with the court’s order by depositing the $125 million fine into an escrow account. He also stated that Ripple intends to reclaim the funds and seek the dismissal of the permanent injunction that was imposed on its future institutional sales. The injunction, which restricts Ripple from selling XRP to institutional buyers, has been a major point of contention, as it limits the company’s ability to operate in the U.S. market.

Despite Ripple’s demand to have the injunction lifted, Rispoli remains confident that the SEC will ultimately drop the order, allowing Ripple to go public through an initial public offering (IPO) in the U.S. Rispoli further speculates that the SEC will approve the dismissal of Ripple’s appeal at a closed meeting this week, and once the commission issues its statement, it will no longer pursue an appeal. This move would mark a major victory for Ripple, allowing it to operate more freely in the U.S. and potentially raise funds in the capital markets.

Ripple’s legal battles have drawn intense scrutiny, particularly given the broader implications they could have for the entire cryptocurrency sector. The ongoing uncertainty around the regulatory treatment of digital assets, particularly with the SEC’s stance on what constitutes a security, has led to concerns about the future of cryptocurrency companies in the U.S. If Ripple successfully reduces its fine and lifts the injunction, it could serve as a precedent for other companies facing similar regulatory challenges.

In the meantime, the market will be closely watching the developments surrounding Ripple’s case, as a favorable outcome could not only provide a clear path forward for Ripple but also offer some clarity on the regulatory landscape for the crypto industry as a whole.