Veteran trader Peter Brandt has issued a cautious outlook for XRP, highlighting a possible 20% decline if the token fails to hold a key technical support level. His latest chart analysis shows a descending triangle pattern, a formation that often signals further downside momentum. Brandt’s warning comes as negative sentiment toward XRP reaches a six-month high, while on-chain data reveals that mid-level holders have begun offloading their tokens after months of accumulation.

Brandt’s Chart Shows Key Support Level at $2.68743

In his recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Brandt identified a developing descending triangle on XRP’s price chart. According to classic technical analysis by Edwards and Magee, such formations often indicate a continuation of a downtrend if support breaks decisively.

Brandt commented:

“On the right is a developing descending triangle. ONLY IF it closes below 2.68743 (then I’ll be a hater), then it should drop to 2.22163.”

At the time of his analysis, XRP was trading around $2.85, meaning a 6% drop could trigger the bearish confirmation and potentially lead to a further 20% correction toward $2.22.

While Brandt stopped short of predicting an immediate crash, he suggested that a close below this threshold would confirm downside momentum, especially as market sentiment weakens across the altcoin sector.

Negative Sentiment Hits Six-Month High

Market data from Santiment shows that bearish sentiment toward XRP is now at its highest level in six months. Traders have grown increasingly cautious, reflecting broader uncertainty in the altcoin market even as Bitcoin and Ethereum maintain strong momentum.

Interestingly, Santiment noted that such extreme negative sentiment can sometimes act as a contrarian signal, historically preceding short-term rebounds when fear peaks and selling pressure begins to fade.

However, this pattern is not guaranteed, and with multiple indicators pointing toward caution, investors are closely watching XRP’s behavior near the key $2.68 support level.

Google Trends Reflect Waning Retail Interest

Adding to the cautious outlook, Google search interest in XRP has declined significantly. According to Google Trends, search activity for XRP fell to a three-month low in late September and currently sits below 25 points, reflecting reduced public engagement.

This decline suggests that retail traders — who often drive short-term rallies — may be stepping back, leaving institutional and long-term holders as the dominant market participants. The drop in public interest also aligns with the growing bearish mood highlighted by Santiment’s data.

Mid-Level Holders Start Selling After a Year of Accumulation

On-chain data offers another piece of evidence for the shifting market dynamics. Wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP — considered mid-level investors — have started selling for the first time in nearly a year.

Santiment’s chart shows that this group’s share of XRP’s total supply grew from 6% in October 2024 to a peak of 10.76% in September 2025, before declining to 10% in early October 2025.

Such selling often signals profit-taking or declining confidence, and given this group’s significant influence over XRP’s circulating supply, their actions could add meaningful selling pressure in the short term.

What Comes Next for XRP

Peter Brandt’s analysis underscores the risks XRP faces as technical, sentiment, and behavioral factors align to form a bearish picture. The descending triangle, coupled with reduced retail interest and mid-tier distribution, could test XRP’s resilience in the weeks ahead.

Still, some analysts point to potential rebound scenarios if the market shows signs of bearish exhaustion or if broader crypto momentum from Bitcoin and Ethereum spills over into altcoins.

For now, all eyes remain on the $2.68 support zone, which could determine whether XRP stabilizes or enters a deeper corrective phase toward the $2.22 region.