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US users are getting through. Despite Polymarket’s geoblocking setup, fresh data from Allium shows American participants are actively placing bets on the prediction market platform — a platform that’s supposed to be off-limits to them entirely.
The numbers don’t lie, even if the methods behind them aren’t fully clear yet. Allium’s data puts real weight behind what many in the crypto and prediction market space have long suspected: geoblocks aren’t stopping much. US-based users are finding their way onto Polymarket’s global platform, probably through VPNs or similar workarounds, and they’re doing it at a scale that’s hard to ignore. Polymarket built its geoblocking infrastructure specifically to stay on the right side of US regulations — rules that restrict American users from accessing these kinds of betting and prediction services. The fact that a meaningful chunk of its user activity is apparently coming from the US anyway raises serious questions about whether that compliance effort is actually working.
What Allium’s Data Actually Shows
Allium didn’t publish a breakdown of exact bet volumes from US users. That detail’s missing. What the data does make clear is that the presence of American participants on Polymarket is real and measurable — not a handful of edge cases. The scale of it suggests this isn’t accidental. People are going out of their way to get in.
Polymarket runs markets on political events and outcomes. It’s built a global following precisely because those markets are genuinely interesting — they move fast, they reflect real-world sentiment, and they’ve attracted serious traders alongside casual participants. For US users locked out by geoblocking, that appeal is apparently strong enough to justify the workaround. VPNs are the most obvious tool. They’re cheap, widely available, and not exactly hard to figure out. Whether that’s what most US users are using here, Allium’s data doesn’t say. The exact methods remain unclear.
And Polymarket hasn’t said anything publicly about the findings. No statement, no clarification, no plan of action — at least not yet.
Regulators Are Going to Notice
It’s hard to see how this doesn’t eventually land on a regulator’s desk. The whole point of geoblocking in this context is regulatory compliance — telling US authorities that the platform isn’t accessible to American users. If the data shows otherwise, that’s a problem. Not just for Polymarket, but for the broader prediction market space that’s been trying to carve out a legitimate lane.
Prediction markets have had a complicated relationship with US regulators for years. The CFTC has historically been skeptical, and platforms operating in this space have had to navigate that carefully. Polymarket’s geoblock was basically its answer to that scrutiny. But a geoblock that users can sidestep with a VPN in five minutes isn’t really a compliance mechanism — it’s closer to a formality.
The Allium findings put fresh pressure on that reality. Regulatory bodies may well look at this data and decide that current enforcement strategies need rethinking. The tools platforms use to restrict access, and the tools regulators use to verify that access is actually restricted, are both getting stress-tested here.
What’s particularly tricky is the transparency gap. There’s no detailed picture of how many bets US users are placing, what markets they’re hitting, or how long this has been going on at scale. That ambiguity cuts both ways — it makes it harder for regulators to quantify the problem, but it also makes it harder for Polymarket to credibly argue the situation is under control.
Demand That Didn’t Go Away
Here’s the thing about geoblocking as a strategy: it works on the compliant and the casual. It doesn’t do much against users who actually want in. And the Allium data pretty much confirms that US demand for prediction markets didn’t disappear just because the platform put up a wall.
That’s a broader industry issue, not just a Polymarket one. Crypto-adjacent platforms across the board have run into the same dynamic. Block access, and a certain percentage of users will route around it. The more appealing the product, the higher that percentage gets.
Polymarket’s markets on political outcomes have been some of the most-watched prediction markets in the world over the past few years. US users paying attention to those markets — and wanting to participate financially — isn’t surprising. What Allium’s data adds is evidence that the regulatory barrier isn’t functioning as intended.
No one from Polymarket has responded to the findings. The platform hasn’t said whether it plans to tighten its geoblocking, pursue different compliance tools, or engage with regulators directly on the issue. For now, the data sits out there, and the question of what comes next for both the platform and the users accessing it from restricted territory stays open.
Allium’s data puts the US participation figure on the record.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Polymarket and why is it blocked for US users?
Polymarket is a prediction market platform offering bets on political events and outcomes. It uses geoblocking to restrict US users in order to comply with American regulations that limit access to this type of betting service.
How are US users getting around Polymarket’s geoblocks?
Per Allium’s data, US users are bypassing restrictions — likely through VPNs or similar tools — though the exact methods haven’t been specified in the findings.
