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What Happened
Shiba Inu has emerged from a notably strong third quarter. With a 44.1% increase and three consecutive months in the green, it’s the kind of streak that gets people talking in crypto forums. This occurred in a rather favorable context: the total market capitalization rose from $2.15 trillion to $2.89 trillion over the period, marking a more than 34% overall gain. SHIB outperformed the market, not by a huge margin, but enough to attract attention.
But here’s the thing. October is approaching. And with October comes a question that resurfaces every year in discussions about this token: will the month repeat the magic of 2021? Spoiler: probably not. And the numbers clearly say so.
Historical Context
October 2021 for Shiba Inu was a different world. Up 833.6%. In just one month. It’s the kind of performance that skews all statistics, creates impossible averages, and leads to frankly unrealistic expectations for the following years. But since then, Octobers have calmed down. In 2022: up 10%. In 2023: up 6.13%. In 2024: up 1.33%. And in 2025: down 13.61%. The trend is clear, and it’s pointing downward.
The median October returns, excluding the 2021 anomaly, hover around 6.04%. It’s not bad, but it’s far from the fireworks some holders seem to expect each autumn. And that’s as much a perception problem as it is a market problem.
2021 created a sort of myth. A month when SHIB multiplied its value by almost nine. A month that attracted thousands of new buyers, media coverage everywhere, and a community convinced it could happen again. Not now. Not under current conditions.
Why It Matters
What makes the Shiba Inu case interesting is precisely this tension between the market’s positive sentiment and the token’s technical reality. On one hand, the third-quarter rise is real. It’s not isolated — it’s part of a broader rally affecting the entire sector. On the other hand, SHIB remains far from its all-time high in 2021. Very far.
And that’s where it gets complicated for investors. The token’s volatility is as attractive as it is off-putting. Those seeking quick gains see an opportunity in every peak. Those looking at fundamentals mainly see an asset heavily dependent on general sentiment, without a clearly identified own catalyst. Both are probably right, at the same time.
The current technical setup deserves attention. A double-bottom formation has appeared on the chart — often interpreted as a potential reversal signal. But “potential” is the key word here. This formation is meaningless without validation. And validation, in this case, involves breaking through specific resistance levels.
What to Watch
Three levels to keep in mind in the coming weeks.
First point: the resistance between $0.00000620 and $0.00000630. A daily close above this zone would change the game. It would consolidate the upward trend and give bulls a solid technical argument to hold their position. It’s not yet clear if the volume will support this breakout.
Second point: the support between $0.00000560 and $0.00000570. If SHIB breaks below this zone, the rebound structure collapses. Selling pressure would likely take over, and the third-quarter gain would start to look like mere technical relief rather than a real trend change.
Third point: volumes. This might be the most important of the three. The momentum of a token like SHIB directly depends on real demand. Rising volumes on a resistance breakout is a strong signal. Volumes dwindling during consolidation is a warning sign. This needs to be closely monitored.
The broader market also plays a role. The 34.4% increase in overall capitalization from the start to the end of the third quarter shows that risk appetite has returned, at least temporarily. SHIB benefits from this like all other tokens in its category. But when general sentiment turns — and it always eventually does — the most speculative assets are often the first to suffer.
Too risky to ignore this aspect. The correlation between SHIB and the overall market is strong. A correction in Bitcoin or Ethereum would quickly impact the token, regardless of its own technical setup. This is a reality SHIB holders know well, even if they sometimes prefer not to think about it.
What is certain: the third quarter was good. Better than expected for many. The streak of three consecutive positive months is a fact, not an opinion. But October, with its history distorted by 2021, remains a month to approach with caution. The median at 6.04% — excluding the 2021 anomaly — provides a more realistic basis for calibrating expectations. And the technical resistances at $0.00000620-$0.00000630 remain the real test for the coming weeks.
