Solana (SOL), once again, finds itself at a crucial crossroads. After a strong rally earlier this quarter, the cryptocurrency is now contending with a fresh wave of selling pressure. Long-term holders (LTHs), who had briefly returned to accumulation just a week ago, are back to offloading their holdings. Despite the exit of these seasoned investors, rising activity from new wallets points to growing retail interest, offering a potential counterbalance to the selling pressure—but it remains to be seen whether this demand will be strong enough to push SOL above the critical $155 resistance level.

On June 28, Solana recorded net outflows of approximately 491 million SOL, marking a significant shift in sentiment among its long-term holder base. According to data from Glassnode, this heavy distribution follows a brief period of optimism. Just a few days earlier, on June 22, there were minor inflows of 170 million SOL, suggesting that LTHs were beginning to accumulate again. However, that trend quickly reversed. The Hodler Net Position Change flipped back to red, confirming that profit-taking and fear may have overtaken long-term conviction as SOL hovered near key resistance levels.

This latest phase of distribution is not happening in a vacuum. Solana’s price has been fluctuating between $140 and $150 during this time, as indicated by the black line in Glassnode’s chart. The repeated rejection near this range suggests that the selling by long-term holders is directly capping any significant breakout attempts. For now, each approach to the $150 zone seems to be met with sufficient sell pressure to halt upward momentum.

Despite this, the picture isn’t entirely bearish. Data indicates that new wallets are being created at a substantial rate, pointing to renewed retail interest in Solana’s ecosystem. On June 22, the number of new SOL addresses spiked to 5.44 million—the highest recorded in nearly two months. This surge suggested that newcomers were entering the network in droves, possibly viewing the current correction as a buying opportunity. However, this enthusiasm didn’t last long. By June 28, the number of new addresses had fallen back to 3.35 million, close to baseline levels from earlier in the month.

Still, the influx of new users could serve as a stabilizing force, especially if retail investors maintain their interest and begin accumulating for the long term. While the initial burst in activity appears to have faded, the broader trend of increased onboarding points to a maturing market where retail players may start to offset the influence of older whales gradually exiting their positions.

Technically, Solana’s indicators present a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sat around 51 at press time, reflecting neutral momentum. This suggests that neither buyers nor sellers currently have full control of the market. On a more positive note, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator showed signs of a bullish crossover, with the MACD line moving above the signal line. The histogram bars also turned green, indicating building upward momentum.

However, this momentum is still limited. Daily trading volume remained relatively muted, hovering around 105,000 SOL. Additionally, price candles on the chart lacked conviction—meaning there were no strong follow-throughs after slight upward moves. For traders watching the charts, this points to hesitancy in the market. Without a breakout above $155, many are unwilling to enter new positions or increase exposure.

This caution is understandable. Solana’s recent struggle to hold gains, paired with ongoing profit-taking by long-term holders, creates an environment of uncertainty. However, if the new wave of retail participants continues to grow and gains confidence, their presence could provide a buffer against further declines. It’s also possible that this retail demand will eventually drive a breakout above $155, reigniting the bullish trend.

In conclusion, Solana is currently navigating a complex landscape. Large outflows from long-term holders have weighed on price momentum, but rising new wallet activity points to a shift in the market’s demographic makeup. Technical indicators are beginning to show signs of life, but without a confirmed breakout above $155, bulls remain cautious. The next few days will be critical in determining whether retail enthusiasm can translate into enough sustained buying pressure to overcome the sell wall and carry Solana into its next leg up.