Solana (SOL) is currently at a pivotal technical juncture as the altcoin tests the lower boundary of a rising channel, a pattern that often signals either a strong continuation or an imminent breakdown. Over the past week, Solana has moved sideways within a narrowing range, consolidating between $145 and $160. While bulls have defended support levels so far, the inability to break higher raises concerns about a potential move lower, possibly toward the $128.50 zone.

Market analysts note that despite recent bullish momentum across the crypto sector, including Bitcoin testing new highs, Solana’s price action has been more reserved. According to top crypto analyst Carl Runefelt, Solana is trading within a rising channel pattern on the daily chart. While this structure can suggest a bullish continuation, it can also precede sharp corrections if the price fails to hold above the lower trendline.

Currently, SOL is trading just under the $150 mark, about 20% down from its May local high. This pullback reflects broader market indecision, especially as traders remain hesitant to push the asset above the $160 resistance level. Repeated failures to break that barrier have resulted in a tightening formation, increasing the chances of a decisive move in either direction.

The rising channel identified on Solana’s daily chart is a classic setup that can either sustain a bullish uptrend or break down into a steeper correction. Should Solana break below the lower boundary of this channel, analysts are eyeing the $128.50 support level as the next likely target. Historically, this area has served as a strong demand zone, and a retest could provide the foundation for a future recovery—provided that broader market sentiment remains intact.

Despite the current caution, the longer-term outlook for Solana remains moderately positive. The coin continues to attract attention thanks to its high throughput, low transaction costs, and growing presence in DeFi and NFT ecosystems. However, in the short term, traders are watching key levels closely to determine the asset’s next direction.

Technical analysis highlights several critical indicators. First, SOL has struggled to stay above its 100-day moving average, which now sits near the $155.60 level. This average is acting as dynamic resistance, capping upside momentum. Further above, the 200-day moving average is positioned near $165.50, creating another layer of resistance that bulls must clear before any attempt to revisit the $170–$180 price zone.

Volume data from TradingView also shows a notable decline compared to early June activity, which suggests a “wait-and-see” approach from market participants. A confirmed breakout above the $160 resistance level could bring renewed buying interest, likely pushing the price toward the $170 mark. On the flip side, failure to hold current levels would confirm a bearish breakdown from the rising channel and shift sentiment further toward caution.

Solana’s current price forecast hinges largely on whether bulls can maintain support above $140 and break above the key $155–$160 resistance zone. If successful, SOL may see renewed momentum that could test highs from earlier this year. However, if price action remains weak and the lower trendline breaks, traders should brace for a dip to the $128.50 level, which may attract longer-term buyers but would mark a clear short-term reversal.

From a broader market perspective, Solana’s indecision mirrors the overall uncertainty in the crypto market. Bitcoin has been flirting with new highs, while Ethereum continues to consolidate. The lack of explosive moves in leading altcoins like Solana suggests that investors are waiting for macro or regulatory catalysts—such as the upcoming U.S. Crypto Week—for direction.

In conclusion, Solana’s technical analysis presents a mixed picture. On one hand, the presence of a rising channel pattern typically supports bullish sentiment. On the other, the failure to reclaim critical resistance zones and the threat of a breakdown points to potential downside. All eyes are now on the $145–$160 range. A breakout above could confirm renewed bullish strength, while a breakdown could set the stage for a drop toward $128.50, a level that may ultimately determine Solana’s medium-term fate.