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SpaceX shares are bleeding out. The stock closed July 31 at $108, down 3.41% on the day and a brutal 36% below its July 1 price of $171.
That’s not a dip. It’s a collapse. Since hitting $225 on June 16 — just days after the IPO on June 12 — the stock has shed more than half its value. The $108 close was the lowest since the company went public, and the chart isn’t giving traders much to feel good about. Now two massive events land in the same week: quarterly earnings on August 4, followed two days later by the expiry of insider selling restrictions. The combination is basically a stress test for a stock that’s already struggling to hold itself together.
Earnings on August 4: Revenue Estimates and Short Squeeze Risk
Wall Street expects SpaceX to report quarterly revenue somewhere between $6.72 billion and $6.9 billion. Beat that range and the stock probably gets a bounce — maybe enough to pull some buyers off the sidelines. Miss it, and the downside gets a lot uglier fast, especially since there’s no real support base underneath the current price level.
Short sellers are circling. There are 219.3 million shares currently shorted, which works out to roughly 39% of publicly traded shares. That’s a massive short position. If earnings come in strong and guidance impresses, those short sellers would need to cover quickly, and that kind of forced buying can spark a sharp rally. But it cuts both ways — if the numbers disappoint, the shorts get rewarded and the stock probably tests lower levels in a hurry.
Analysts haven’t given up on SpaceX. Bernstein kept its outperform rating and set a $239 price target after the company’s 13th Starship test flight. William Blair went further, raising its earnings-per-share estimate to $8.60, pointing to the potential growth coming from data-center operations as a key reason for optimism. Both firms seem to think the selloff has been overdone. Whether the market agrees is another question entirely.
Investors are watching Starlink and the data-center business especially closely. Those two segments are pretty much the growth story right now. Weak guidance on either one would probably extend the pain.
911.5 Million Shares Hit the Market on August 6
Then there’s the unlock.
On August 6, insider selling restrictions lift and 911.5 million shares become available for sale. At current prices, that’s roughly $98.4 billion worth of stock that could hit the market. Sam Pierson at S3 Partners put it bluntly — the sheer volume of shares could swamp any positive reaction from earnings, and that risk alone might keep buyers away in the days leading up to it.
Think about that number for a second. $98.4 billion. Even if only a fraction of those insiders decide to sell, the potential supply overhang is enormous. It’s the kind of event that makes traders nervous regardless of what the earnings say.
The technical picture isn’t helping either. SpaceX is sitting right on the $107.10 Fibonacci support level. A break below that almost certainly puts the psychological $100 mark in play — and $100 is the kind of round number that tends to attract more selling before it finds buyers. Recovery would need the stock to clear $121.09, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Beyond that, resistance sits at $132.08 and then $139.80. Those levels seem far away right now.
The stock is trading inside a descending channel. Momentum is bearish. Until SpaceX clears at least $121.09, there’s no real technical case for a trend reversal.
A Brutal Week Ahead
The timing is what makes it so hard. Earnings and the unlock don’t just fall in the same week — they fall two days apart. Traders can’t really position cleanly for one without the other hanging over them. Volatility is going to be elevated. Intraday swings could get wide and unpredictable, which makes execution messy.
And the short interest situation adds another layer. 39% of publicly traded shares shorted is a significant overhang. It can flip into a short squeeze, sure. But it also means bearish sentiment is deeply embedded in the stock right now, and that doesn’t change unless the earnings report is genuinely impressive and guidance is strong.
Bernstein’s $239 target looks a long way from $108.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does the SpaceX insider share unlock happen?
Insider selling restrictions lift on August 6, releasing 911.5 million shares valued at approximately $98.4 billion at current prices, according to S3 Partners’ Sam Pierson.
What revenue is Wall Street expecting from SpaceX’s earnings report?
Analysts expect SpaceX to report quarterly revenue between $6.72 billion and $6.9 billion when the company announces results on August 4.
