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Jim Cramer is watching SpaceX closely. Really closely. On Thursday he called a recent company deal “HUGE,” and by Friday he’d shifted focus to something that could shake the stock harder than any single contract — a wave of insider shares about to hit the open market.
Why It Matters
The upcoming release of 1.31 billion shares from SpaceX insiders introduces significant volatility potential in the market, as it could dilute existing shares and impact investor sentiment. This event follows the company's recent public listing, making it particularly critical for stakeholders to assess how such a large influx of shares might influence stock performance amidst ongoing scrutiny of the company's financial health and growth prospects. As the market digests these developments, it will be crucial to monitor investor reactions and trading volumes in the context of broader market trends.
Right now, 328.4 million shares are already tracking as ready to sell. That’s not the scary part. The scary part comes later.
The Big Unlock Is Still Coming
SpaceX went public in June and, like most IPOs, it came with a lockup period. Early investors and employees couldn’t dump shares immediately. Instead, the company set up staged releases — shares unlocking in batches over time. Cramer has been mapping each release date, and the one that’s got people paying attention is the final, biggest batch: up to 1.31 billion shares, set to become sellable two trading days after SpaceX posts its third-quarter results. No exact date has been pinned down yet, since the Q3 report date itself hasn’t been announced.
Worth saying clearly: insiders being allowed to sell doesn’t mean they will. Lockup expirations don’t automatically trigger a selloff. But when you’re talking 1.31 billion shares — the largest release since the IPO — the possibility of heavy selling pressure is hard to ignore.
Cramer’s advice is pretty simple. Wait. He told investors to hold off on big purchases until at least the first lockup release clears, a point he made back in July and is still standing behind. The reasoning makes sense — you don’t want to buy a big position right before a flood of supply potentially hits.
Mixed Results From Earlier Unlocks
SpaceX’s prior lockup releases have gone both ways. The August unlock actually pushed the stock up. The September 24 release went the other direction. So there’s no clean pattern here, no reliable playbook. Each release seems to trade on its own context — what the broader market is doing, what news is circulating, how bullish sentiment feels that week.
That inconsistency is basically the whole problem. Retail investors trying to time these events are working with limited information and a stock that doesn’t behave predictably around unlock dates. Cramer’s tracking of the schedule is useful, but even he can’t tell you which direction 1.31 billion shares will push the price when they finally become available.
On the valuation question, Cramer isn’t budging. SpaceX trades at roughly 137 times projected earnings over the next 12 months, per FactSet data. That’s a steep multiple by any traditional measure. But Cramer said flat out: “Yes, there are stocks that I think are insanely priced, but SpaceX is not one of them.” He’s comfortable with where the stock sits relative to the company’s growth story.
Not everyone agrees. Investor George Noble has a very different read — he puts SpaceX’s fair value at $30. That’s a stark gap from current trading levels, and Noble’s number probably sounds alarming to anyone who bought in at a premium. No details on Noble’s methodology, but the contrast with Cramer’s bullish stance is hard to miss.
Starlink Spectrum Deal Adds a Wrinkle
Separate from the lockup drama, SpaceX just closed a spectrum deal that lets Starlink sell phone services directly to consumers. Markets liked it. SpaceX shares jumped roughly 3.9% before Friday’s open on the news. Traditional carrier stocks moved the opposite direction — not surprising, since direct-to-consumer satellite phone service is a real competitive threat to legacy telecoms.
The Starlink angle matters for the lockup question too. A positive catalyst running alongside a massive share release creates a complicated picture. If insiders decide to sell into strength, the spectrum deal’s boost could get absorbed fast. If they hold, the stock might actually sustain the gains. Unclear which way that breaks.
What’s clear is that the post-earnings unlock — whenever Q3 results land — is the single biggest scheduled event on SpaceX’s near-term calendar for shareholders. Cramer has it flagged as critical. The 1.31 billion share figure is just too large to treat as routine.
Past releases showed the stock can go either way. The August unlock ended with a gain. September 24 didn’t. And the upcoming one dwarfs both of them in scale.
SpaceX’s stock moved 3.9% on the Starlink spectrum news alone.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is SpaceX’s largest share unlock scheduled?
The largest unlock — up to 1.31 billion shares — is set for two trading days after SpaceX’s third-quarter results, but no exact date has been announced since the Q3 report date itself is still unspecified.
What valuation is SpaceX currently trading at?
SpaceX trades at approximately 137 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, according to FactSet data, though investor George Noble puts the stock’s fair value at $30.
