Toncoin (TON) has captured the attention of the cryptocurrency market as it navigates a challenging trading landscape. Despite recent difficulties, rising buying pressure is bolstering optimism among traders, who are now targeting the crucial $7.5 resistance level.

Market Performance and Technical Analysis

Toncoin has been trading within a month-long range, attempting to recover from significant losses incurred on July 5th. Over the past week, however, the price has struggled to reclaim the $7.5 support level, encountering resistance at $7.7, a formidable barrier for the bulls.

The current trading range for Toncoin spans from $6.75 to $8.27, with the mid-range at $7.5. This mid-range level also represents long-term resistance, which Toncoin failed to break through in April and May. Presently, the price remains in the lower half of this range, with the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43, indicating bearish momentum. This suggests that Toncoin could potentially move towards the $6.75 support level next.

Despite the bearish indicators, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has maintained a support level since June, highlighting some underlying buying pressure. This persistent buying interest provides hope that Toncoin bulls might be able to retest the $6.75 support level and potentially see a positive reaction.

Spot Buying and Open Interest

Sentiment among speculators remains weak, as evidenced by the Open Interest (OI) in Toncoin. Over the past three days, OI has held steady at around $261 million, even as prices fluctuated between $7.2 and $7.4. This lack of movement in OI underscores the absence of strong bullish conviction among futures traders.

However, a different group of traders remains optimistic. Since July 9th, the spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has trended higher, reflecting increased buying pressure. This upward trend in spot CVD is a positive sign, indicating that spot buyers are stepping in to support Toncoin. While this alone may not be sufficient to drive a rally past the $7.5 resistance, it does provide a foundation for potential bullish momentum.

Key Levels to Watch

For Toncoin bulls, the primary focus is on reclaiming the $7.5 resistance level. Successfully breaking through this barrier would signal a significant shift in market sentiment and could pave the way for further gains. However, this will require sustained buying pressure and a shift in momentum, which is currently lacking among futures traders.

Should Toncoin fail to hold above $7.5, the next critical level to watch is the $6.75 support. A retest of this support level, followed by a positive reaction, could reignite bullish sentiment and provide a new basis for an upward move. Conversely, a break below $6.75 would likely exacerbate bearish sentiment and lead to further declines.

Conclusion

Toncoin’s recent trading activity has been marked by a struggle to reclaim key resistance levels, but rising spot buying offers a glimmer of hope for bulls. The $7.5 resistance remains the primary target, and a successful break above this level could signal the start of a new bullish phase.

Traders and investors should closely monitor market activity, particularly any changes in spot buying pressure and futures Open Interest. These indicators will provide crucial insights into the likelihood of Toncoin achieving its near-term targets and the overall direction of the market.