As the broader crypto market reels from geopolitical shocks and rising uncertainty, TRON (TRX) has quietly managed to limit its losses. Unlike Ethereum and Solana, which saw sharp declines, TRX slipped just under 3% in the last 24 hours. This relative strength comes as Bitcoin dropped over 3.6%, putting added pressure across altcoins.

However, TRON’s stability may soon be tested. The price is inching closer to the lower boundary of a six-week trading range, and bulls will need to act swiftly to prevent a breakdown. If key support at $0.261 fails, further downside could open up, with $0.24 appearing as the next major level of interest.

TRON Shows Resilience as Correlation to Bitcoin Remains Low

Despite ongoing volatility, TRON has shown a surprising level of price stability. While BTC, ETH, and SOL all experienced notable drops, TRON’s decline has been more measured. Data from IntoTheBlock’s correlation matrix shows TRX has only a +0.32 correlation with Bitcoin, significantly lower than other major altcoins. This lower correlation has likely helped TRX avoid steeper losses during market downturns.

However, being relatively uncorrelated doesn’t make TRON immune to wider market stress. The altcoin is now approaching a critical support area, and how it reacts in the coming days could determine its short-term direction.

Six-Week Trading Range Nears a Decision Point

Technical analysis of TRON’s daily chart shows a clear trading range between $0.263 and $0.294. TRX has remained within this channel for over a month, bouncing between the two boundaries while struggling to establish a breakout.

After facing rejection at mid-range resistance near $0.279 on June 17, the price dropped below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.27. This retracement was plotted based on TRON’s rally from $0.16 to $0.45 in late 2025.

At the time of writing, TRX is moving toward the lower boundary of the range again. If bulls can defend the $0.261–$0.263 zone, a reversal back toward the mid-range may be possible. But if this level is breached, the path toward $0.24 could be in play.

Momentum Weakens While Volume Stays Balanced

The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator has shown equilibrium between buyers and sellers for most of the past month. This neutral reading suggests that while price action is under pressure, there hasn’t yet been a strong shift in demand or supply.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently dipped below the neutral 50 mark, indicating growing bearish momentum. This suggests that while selling pressure hasn’t overwhelmed the market, bullish momentum is starting to fade.

Liquidation Levels Point to Volatility Ahead

Coinglass’s one-month liquidation heatmap offers more insight into potential price reactions. The magnetic zone near $0.264 has already been swept, and a further dip to $0.261 could trigger liquidations and set up a possible bounce.

Yet the downside risk doesn’t end there. If $0.261 fails to hold, TRON could fall toward the next significant liquidation cluster at $0.24. This would represent a steeper decline and possibly trigger broader capitulation among short-term holders.

Despite TRON’s relatively weak correlation to Bitcoin, a further BTC decline could indirectly drag TRX lower as overall sentiment in the crypto market deteriorates.

Outlook for TRX: Patience or Protection?

Swing traders looking for long setups on TRX may want to proceed with caution. While the token has shown strength compared to peers, its momentum is weakening, and key technical support is under threat.

If the $0.261 level holds, TRX could continue its sideways movement and potentially retest the range highs in coming weeks. A bounce from this level could also align with a general crypto recovery—should market sentiment begin to improve.

However, if the support gives way, the risk of a drop to $0.24 becomes real, especially if volatility across the market increases.

Conclusion: Support Holds the Key to TRON’s Next Move

TRON may not be experiencing the same level of turbulence as Bitcoin or Ethereum, but it’s not out of danger either. A decisive hold above $0.261 could give bulls a reason to stay hopeful, especially if buyers return at lower levels.

But if the support fails and the market remains shaky, TRX might follow the broader trend lower. The coming days will be crucial as traders watch for signs of strength—or weakness—around the critical support zone.