Toncoin (TON) has seen a sharp rally recently, bouncing back from a critical support level and positioning itself at a major resistance near $6. As TON battles with this resistance, the big question is whether the bulls have the strength to push past it or if the rally will fade, leading to a possible pullback.

Toncoin’s Rally After Testing Key Support

Toncoin recently rebounded after testing its six-month support between $4.6 and $4.8, surging nearly 22% over the past two weeks. At press time, TON was trading at $5.70, having climbed above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $5.54. This recovery placed TON right at the doorstep of a critical resistance, the long-term trendline it has respected since July.

If the bulls can muster enough momentum to push Toncoin above the $6 resistance level—coinciding with the 200-day EMA at $6.03—the rally could extend, with targets set at $6.78 and possibly $7.00 in the short term. Breaking past this level would confirm a solid bullish recovery, potentially setting up TON for a broader uptrend.

However, if TON fails to break through the $6 resistance, it may face a pullback. In this scenario, the altcoin could dip back to test support near $5.54, and a sustained close below this level could trigger a deeper correction. If this happens, the price could fall towards the $5.00 and $4.86 levels.

Key Technical Indicators: What’s Next for TON?

Toncoin’s current technical indicators offer mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 53.50, reflecting neutral momentum just above the midline. This suggests that while buyers are still in control, they need to push higher to confirm the next leg of the rally. A move above 60 on the RSI would strengthen the bullish case.

Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) has recently closed above the zero line, showing a slight bullish edge. A continued position above this level would further reinforce the upward bias for TON.

Derivatives Data Shows Renewed Interest

Toncoin’s recent rally has also caught the attention of derivatives traders. According to Coinglass, TON’s volume surged by over 44%, reaching $233.38 million. Additionally, open interest increased by 2.61%, signaling that traders continue to hold positions amid the recent price action, suggesting confidence in further price movements.

However, derivatives data presents a nuanced picture. While the overall long/short ratio stood at 0.9666, reflecting a slightly bearish bias, Binance traders seem optimistic. The long/short ratio on Binance accounts was bullish at 2.4638, indicating that many traders are betting on a continued recovery. Similarly, the long/short ratio on OKX was 1.83, further reinforcing the bullish sentiment among key market participants.

What to Watch for: A Breakout or Pullback?

For Toncoin to continue its rally, breaking past the $6 resistance level is crucial. Traders should closely monitor the RSI and derivatives data for any signs of further bullish momentum. The Awesome Oscillator maintaining a positive position would also help confirm the possibility of sustained upward movement.

However, caution is warranted. If TON fails to break past $6, it may retreat to the $5.54 support level. A breakdown below this could send the price further down, potentially as low as $5.00. Traders should also consider Bitcoin’s price movements and overall market sentiment, as these factors could heavily influence TON’s price trajectory.

Conclusion: Bulls Eyeing Key Resistance

Toncoin’s recent rally has positioned it at a key resistance level, and the coming days will be critical in determining whether bulls can reclaim their edge. If TON can break through the $6 resistance and sustain the momentum, it could lead to further gains, possibly pushing towards $7. However, failure to clear this hurdle could result in a pullback, sending the price lower.