Ripple’s XRP is once again in the spotlight as bullish sentiment across the crypto market fuels hopes of a breakout. However, even with renewed optimism and rising social engagement, XRP’s price remains trapped under a crucial resistance level at $2.35. As on-chain metrics send mixed signals, the tug-of-war between bulls and bears is intensifying, with the next move likely to decide XRP’s short-term fate.

Sentiment Turns Positive, But Price Action Lags

XRP’s market sentiment has turned notably more upbeat in recent days. According to Santiment data, Ripple’s social dominance climbed to 2.92%, while weighted sentiment flipped positive to 0.166, after spending most of June in negative territory. This surge in social chatter and positivity indicates growing interest and confidence from the broader crypto community.

Adding to the bullish picture, Binance data shows that 76.34% of traders are holding long positions in XRP, a strong indication that retail and institutional participants are betting on an upward breakout.

However, while sentiment has improved significantly, price action has yet to confirm the optimism. XRP continues to consolidate just above the $2.10 mark, failing to push past the $2.35 resistance that has capped every bullish attempt for weeks. This disconnect between crowd sentiment and actual market behavior poses a challenge for the bulls.

XRP Trades Within Descending Structure

At press time, XRP was trading around $2.14, having bounced from the $2.00–$2.10 demand zone earlier this week. While the rebound is encouraging, technical analysis shows that the asset is still trading within a descending wedge pattern—a formation that typically constrains price movements and favors eventual breakdowns unless a strong breakout occurs.

A decisive move above the $2.35 resistance is necessary to flip the short-term trend bullish. If bulls manage to breach this level with convincing volume, XRP could target $2.60 in the near term. However, repeated rejection from the resistance zone could drag the price back toward $2.00 or even as low as $1.80.

Until bulls assert dominance above $2.35, XRP remains at risk of slipping back into bearish territory.

On-Chain Metrics Signal Weak Network Activity

Despite the upbeat sentiment in the market, XRP’s on-chain fundamentals tell a more subdued story. Daily Active Addresses have dropped to around 17,400, signaling a decline in unique wallet interactions with the XRP Ledger. Meanwhile, transaction activity, which saw a spike earlier in June, has failed to maintain momentum.

This lack of sustained network engagement suggests that much of the current enthusiasm surrounding XRP may be speculative rather than grounded in real, organic demand. For any rally to be sustainable, it must be backed by strong and consistent on-chain activity—a condition XRP has yet to meet.

NVT Ratio Points to Undervaluation—But With Caveats

One potentially bullish signal is the sharp decline in XRP’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, which dropped by over 18% in the last 24 hours to 237.16. A lower NVT ratio often implies that a cryptocurrency is undervalued relative to its transaction volume, hinting at a possible buying opportunity.

However, experts caution that this signal may be misleading without corresponding strength in other network indicators. With falling Daily Active Addresses and inconsistent transaction throughput, the NVT drop may reflect short-term price noise rather than a meaningful improvement in network utility.

For the NVT signal to carry weight, it must be accompanied by a rise in user engagement and transactional demand—neither of which is currently visible in XRP’s on-chain data.

Long-Term Holders in Profit—But For How Long?

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Long/Short Difference stands at +20.99%, showing that long-term XRP holders are comfortably in profit. While this metric indicates strong hands are still in control, it also raises the risk of potential sell-offs.

As XRP hovers near a significant resistance level, long-term holders may be tempted to take profits, especially if momentum weakens or the price fails to make a meaningful push higher. If these seasoned holders start unloading their positions, it could trigger a broader correction and dampen sentiment across the board.

Key Levels to Watch

The $2.35 resistance level remains the most important near-term hurdle for XRP. A breakout above this point could validate bullish sentiment and open the door for a run to $2.60 or higher. However, to confirm the breakout, it must occur with strong trading volume and follow-through buying pressure.

On the downside, the $2.10 level is acting as immediate support, with $2.00 and $1.80 as subsequent defense zones. A failure to hold above these levels could signal that the current rally is losing steam, potentially pulling XRP back into a consolidation range.

Final Thoughts: Cautious Optimism or False Hope?

XRP’s road to $2.35 is lined with both promise and pitfalls. While sentiment is shifting favorably and speculative interest is rising, the underlying network activity doesn’t yet support a sustained bullish breakout.

Bulls need to demonstrate strength not just in optimism but in action—through volume, demand, and on-chain growth. Until that happens, XRP remains vulnerable to pullbacks and potential sell-offs, especially if resistance holds firm.

For now, traders should keep a close eye on the $2.35 barrier. It could either become the springboard for XRP’s next rally—or the ceiling that signals the end of the current bullish dream.