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Crypto analyst Osemka has drawn a striking comparison between XRP’s current price structure and gold’s pattern just before it entered a major bull run. According to his latest analysis, XRP is not showing signs of a market top but instead forming a “reaccumulation range,” similar to the base that gold built before its breakout to new highs.
Reaccumulation or Top Formation?
On the two-day chart, Osemka identifies a classic Elliott Wave A-B-C correction pattern, where the final leg — labeled “C” — represents what he calls a “Spring” phase. This move, he explains, typically marks the end of a correction and the beginning of a new uptrend.
He highlights that XRP’s sharp drop on October 10 mirrors what in Wyckoff theory is described as a “final shakeout” — a temporary dip that wipes out weak hands before the market reverses higher. This liquidation wick often signals capitulation, paving the way for the next markup phase.
Key Technical Levels
According to Osemka’s chart, XRP’s price is capped by a horizontal resistance zone near the top marked “B,” ranging from $3.40 to $3.66. After this, XRP moved into a sideways consolidation phase, forming internal corrective moves labeled “a,” “b,” and “c.”
The lower boundary of this range lies near $1.62, which Osemka labels as point “A” — the base of reaccumulation where buyers have repeatedly defended the zone. After touching this support, XRP rebounded toward the upper limit before dropping into point “C,” the final Spring phase, where price briefly pierced below $2.20 before recovering to around $2.58.
This pattern, according to the analyst, is a textbook example of a completed correction, often preceding a strong continuation rally in the direction of the prior trend.
Gold’s Similar Setup Before Its 80% Surge
To reinforce his argument, Osemka compares XRP’s current structure to gold’s weekly chart during its long consolidation between 2022 and 2024. Gold also followed a near-identical A-B-C structure:
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A low near $1,680–$1,700 per ounce
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B high near $2,050–$2,100
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C low that briefly undercut $1,700 before rebounding
After completing that pattern, gold broke above the $2,100 resistance in mid-2024 and began a parabolic rally, fueled by safe-haven demand, rate-cut expectations, and central bank accumulation. Within months, gold surged over 80%, reaching around $4,381 per ounce.
By overlaying XRP and gold’s charts, Osemka shows that both assets share identical structures — from the base formation and reaccumulation zones to the final “Spring” shakeout. He suggests XRP may be on the verge of replicating gold’s explosive breakout, provided it holds key support and breaks above major resistance levels.
Analyst’s Outlook: A Final Shakeout Before the Next Leg
In his post, Osemka wrote:
“It’s hard to see this range as anything less than a long reaccumulation after November’s surge. In Elliott wave terms: an ABC with a sharp ending in the C wave — very common. Last shakeout or Spring. There’s basically no difference to the gold reaccumulation example years ago.”
He argues that the market structure supports continuation, not distribution, meaning that the current consolidation is likely a pause before the next major rally.
If XRP follows gold’s path, a confirmed breakout above its $3.40–$3.66 resistance zone could signal the start of a new parabolic phase, potentially leading to fresh multi-year highs.
Market Implications
While short-term volatility remains, the analysis underscores growing optimism that XRP’s long-term structure is forming a bullish foundation. Traders and investors may closely monitor whether XRP can maintain support above $2.20 and break above the $3.60 level — a move that could confirm the transition from reaccumulation to breakout.
As the broader crypto market awaits clearer macro signals, XRP’s chart setup offers an intriguing parallel to one of the most powerful commodity rallies in recent years — suggesting that history may be repeating itself.
