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XRP broke under $1.50 Monday, sliding to $1.47 after a 2.9% single-day drop. It’s a level that matters — and losing it has traders nervous about what comes next.
The token peaked at nearly $1.63 on September 23. Since then it’s been a slow bleed, not a crash. No single ugly session, just a steady drip of lower highs and quick selloffs on any bounce. The move through $1.55 and $1.52 happened almost quietly, and now $1.47 is where things sit. What’s striking is the absence of panic — but also the absence of buyers willing to step in with any real size. Each minor rebound gets sold. Bid support keeps thinning. The RSI reads 54, which is basically the middle of the road — no oversold bounce incoming, no overbought warning either. Just drift.
Six Weeks Under the 50-Week EMA
Here’s the part that probably worries longer-term holders more than Monday’s dip. XRP has now closed six consecutive weeks below the 50-week EMA. Six. Bears have held their line, and the bulls haven’t been able to push back with anything convincing. Support for the bulls sits at $1.31, which is acting as a floor under the current compressed range — but it’s not exactly an inspiring place to be defending.
The 200-day EMA at $1.37 is the number everyone’s watching right now. It’s the line between a medium-term trend that’s still technically bullish and one that flips to neutral. Falling through it wouldn’t just be a bad day — it would shift the whole picture. And if $1.37 breaks cleanly on a close, the next targets people start talking about are $1.30 and then $1.20. Not immediately, but they become realistic. There’s also a descending trendline running from the late-August spike that bulls need to clear to have any shot at sustained upside. Left unchallenged, that trendline points toward $1.20 by mid-November — not a guarantee, but a scenario that’s hard to dismiss.
The context here matters. XRP ran nearly 50% off its August low near $1.00. That rally broke out above a descending trendline from late August and pushed the token to a peak close to $1.70 before September’s gradual fade set in. So what’s happening now isn’t some random selloff — it’s a cooling after a big move, and the question is whether the structure holds or cracks.
What Bulls Need to See at $1.50
Getting back above $1.50 is the first thing that needs to happen. A clean close there would probably reframe Monday’s drop as just a pullback inside a broader uptrend. From $1.50, the next targets are $1.60 to $1.63 — basically retesting the September 23 high. And if the price can hold above $1.37 through all of this, the $1.80 to $2.00 target stays alive. That’s the medium-term prize, and it’s still technically reachable. But it won’t be if $1.37 gives way.
The range for this week looks like $1.37 on the low end and $1.60 on the high end, with $1.50 as the pivot that decides which direction gets tested harder. A dip toward $1.40 to $1.42 could attract buyers — that zone might see some real demand if it gets tagged, which could set up another recovery attempt. That’s the optimistic read, anyway.
The pessimistic one: XRP fails to reclaim $1.50, drifts into $1.40-$1.42, and buyers don’t show up with enough conviction. Then $1.37 gets tested. And if that breaks, $1.80 to $2.00 is probably off the table for a while.
There’s one thing that’s a bit confusing in the data. Inflows into spot XRP ETFs have reportedly reached hundreds of millions of dollars recently, which on the surface looks like institutional money coming in. But those inflows haven’t been directly tied to Monday’s price action — and they clearly didn’t stop the drop. The decline seems more connected to failed resistance tests and thinning bid support than to any sudden institutional exit. Why the ETF inflows and the price are moving in different directions right now isn’t fully clear. No one’s really explained it yet.
September 25 saw a failed attempt to push through $1.60. That failure started the current sequence of lower highs. The descending trendline from September 23 is now a key obstacle for bulls heading into October — clearing it is basically the prerequisite for any serious push higher.
At $1.47, with six weeks of weekly closes below the 50-week EMA and the 200-day EMA at $1.37 sitting just below, XRP’s next move probably gets decided at $1.50.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is XRP’s most critical support level right now?
The 200-day EMA at $1.37 is the key level — a close below it would shift XRP’s medium-term trend from bullish to neutral, with $1.30 and $1.20 becoming the next downside targets.
What price does XRP need to reclaim to turn bullish again?
A close back above $1.50 is the first requirement, which would open the door to retesting the $1.60 to $1.63 range and keep the $1.80 to $2.00 medium-term target in play.
Why It Matters
The sustained decline of XRP below the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) signals a potential shift in market sentiment, raising concerns among traders about the token's momentum and future price action. Prolonged trading below critical support levels often leads to increased volatility and can trigger further sell-offs as market participants reassess their positions. This trend highlights the importance of monitoring broader market conditions and sentiment, as well as the psychological impact of key price levels on trading behavior.
