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XRP is once again capturing attention in the crypto market as it trades close to the $3 mark. The move comes amid growing speculation about a potential XRP ETF approval in the United States, which some analysts believe could arrive as soon as October. However, while optimism is building, concerns over the slow adoption of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) and limited tokenization activity suggest that any rally could face serious hurdles.
XRP Price Reaches Two-Week High
On Tuesday, XRP briefly touched $3.04, its highest level in nearly two weeks, before facing resistance and pulling back to around $2.95. The short-lived surge was driven largely by speculation surrounding an ETF approval and stronger institutional demand in the derivatives market.
Data from CoinGlass shows that aggregate XRP futures open interest rose 5% over the past month, reaching 2.69 billion XRP (about $7.91 billion). At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), futures contracts jumped 74% in the same period, climbing to 386 million XRP. The increase signals deeper participation from institutional players such as market makers and hedge funds.
Despite this spike, analysts note that futures activity alone does not guarantee lasting price momentum, as long and short positions remain balanced. Currently, XRP futures are trading at a 7% premium to spot markets, consistent with normal conditions, indicating no significant leverage imbalances.
ETF Optimism at the Center of XRP’s Rally
Bloomberg analysts assign a 95% probability that an XRP ETF will receive approval, with a final decision expected in late October. If granted, this would open the door to increased institutional inflows and potentially position XRP alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum as one of the few cryptocurrencies with regulated exchange-traded products.
Some products could even arrive earlier through alternative structures. REX-Osprey has proposed ETF-ETN hybrids that, like Solana Staking (SSK), may not require direct SEC approval. If these products gain traction, they could accelerate institutional adoption of XRP.
Weak XRPL Adoption Raises Questions
Despite the buzz, XRP continues to underperform compared with the broader altcoin market. Since August, XRP has been mostly flat, while other major altcoins have posted strong gains. Solana (SOL) climbed 28%, Cardano (ADA) rose 19%, and Ethereum (ETH) gained 18%, with Hyperliquid (HYPE) leading with a 32% surge.
Much of XRP’s recent momentum stemmed from Ripple’s settlement of its long-running dispute with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Yet beyond the legal victory, adoption metrics on the XRP Ledger remain modest.
Ripple’s new stablecoin, RLUSD, recently surpassed $700 million in assets. However, almost 90% of this supply is on Ethereum rather than XRPL, limiting its direct impact. Data from RWA.xyz shows XRPL accounts for just 2% of Real World Assets (RWA) issuance, trailing behind smaller blockchains like Avalanche, Stellar, and Aptos. Meanwhile, XRPL’s total value locked (TVL) is stuck around $100 million — a fraction of its rivals.
Can XRP Reach $3.60?
Technical traders are eyeing $3.60 as the next resistance level for XRP, a price last seen in July. A breakout above $3 could fuel momentum toward this target, especially if ETF approval odds remain strong. However, the sustainability of such a rally depends heavily on whether XRPL adoption improves.
Institutional activity in futures is encouraging, but without stronger demand for tokenization and real-world asset issuance on XRPL, XRP risks being left behind in the broader altcoin rally.
Conclusion
The XRP ETF approval narrative has given bulls reason to push prices toward $3 once again, and a move to $3.60 remains possible in the short term. But with XRPL adoption lagging and tokenization activity limited, questions remain about whether XRP can sustain higher levels.
For now, traders are balancing optimism around ETF developments with caution over weak fundamentals. The coming weeks, particularly the SEC’s decision in October, will be crucial in determining whether XRP breaks out or stalls once more.
