XRP is holding steady near $2.17, continuing a prolonged phase of consolidation that has dominated the second quarter of 2025. With on-chain data pointing to a halt in whale sell-offs and key technical indicators turning bullish, market observers are watching closely for signs of an impending breakout toward $3.40.

XRP Price Remains Range-Bound

XRP has remained stuck below $3.00 for much of Q2, despite multiple bullish attempts to breach key resistance levels. As of Thursday, XRP is trading at $2.17, down 0.32% over the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.

This price action continues a pattern of sideways movement that began in mid-April, with XRP oscillating between $2.00 and $2.25, awaiting stronger catalysts to define the next major trend.

The consolidation phase has aligned with decreased market volatility across the crypto space, as macroeconomic uncertainty keeps investor sentiment cautious.

However, several key metrics—both technical and on-chain—now suggest that the consolidation may soon give way to a bullish reversal.

MVRV Z-Score Signals Undervaluation

One of the most compelling metrics pointing to potential upside is the MVRV Z-score (Market Value to Realized Value), which currently stands at 2.13 for XRP.

Historically, XRP has reached overbought conditions when this score ranged between 3.45 and 6.72. For example, in January 2025, XRP touched $3.25 while the Z-score hit 6.65, which was followed by a notable price correction.

A similar failed rally occurred in March when the score again reached high levels.

In contrast, today’s lower Z-score implies that XRP is undervalued relative to its historical norms. If accumulation continues, this undervaluation could serve as a started for a new price rally.

Whale Sell-Offs Drop to Zero

Another bullish signal comes from on-chain data tracking whale behavior. According to CryptoQuant, Whale-to-Exchange transactions for XRP have dropped to zero, following 2,716 such transactions just two days earlier.

This sudden halt in whale activity suggests that large holders are no longer offloading their XRP tokens on exchanges. Instead, they appear to be entering a holding phase, reducing immediate selling pressure on the asset.

Historically, high whale-to-exchange activity correlates with downward price movements. The absence of such transfers could stabilize XRP’s price around current levels and support a move higher if broader sentiment improves.

Fed Policy Shift Could Boost Crypto Demand

Macro factors are also coming into play. Growing speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates between July and September has a reassessment of risk asset allocations.

If borrowing costs decrease, investors may rotate capital back into cryptocurrencies, including XRP. A more accommodative monetary policy often benefits digital assets as investors seek alternatives to traditional low-yield assets.

Technical Indicators Show Bullish Momentum

The daily chart for XRP supports a bullish outlook. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)—a measure of buying pressure—has moved above the zero line and is approaching the upper trendline of a falling wedge pattern.

This setup is typically seen as a bullish continuation signal. A confirmed breakout above the wedge could indicate a shift in market momentum toward the upside.

Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has flipped bullish, showing a positive crossover, reinforcing the argument for upward price movement.

Immediate resistance is located at $2.25, with the next key level at $2.69, which represents the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous peak.

If buying volume increases, XRP could retest the January high of $3.40 before the end of Q3. A breakout beyond this point may open the door to new all-time highs later in the year.

Downside Risks Still Present

Despite the bullish indicators, traders should remain cautious. A resumption of whale sell-offs, declining demand, or renewed market uncertainty could quickly reverse the trend.

If bearish pressure returns, XRP could fall back to the $1.54 support zone, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. This level has acted as a strong support area in previous corrections and remains critical for maintaining long-term bullish structure.

Conclusion

XRP is showing early signs of strength, backed by whale accumulation, undervaluation signals, and improving technical indicators. If the broader market sentiment remains favorable and trading volume increases, XRP could break out from its current range and move toward $3.40.

However, the market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic data and whale behavior, so traders should watch support levels and trend confirmations closely.