After briefly pushing above $2.10 in mid-April, Ripple’s native token XRP has lost steam, with a sharp rejection at the $2.30 resistance level—now a significant barrier for bulls. Despite ongoing optimism around the Ripple vs. SEC legal case and increased whale accumulation, on-chain data reveals weakening momentum, prompting a more cautious short-term outlook for XRP.

The technical picture, combined with cooling investor activity, suggests that XRP could be headed back toward the $2 psychological support level before any serious upside resumes.

Failed Breakout at $2.30 Marks a Bearish Shift

XRP’s recent attempt to break out above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.30 failed to fuel a sustained rally. This price level, which also marked resistance from earlier in the year, proved too strong amid weak follow-through buying.

Price action on the daily chart indicates that the bullish breakout past the descending trendline in April has run out of steam. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has dropped below -0.05 over the past 10 days, signaling net capital outflows from the market. At the same time, the MACD continues to print bearish momentum, while the Stochastic RSI has slipped into oversold territory without showing signs of a strong reversal.

Together, these indicators highlight a market under pressure, with bears currently in control.

On-Chain Activity Suggests Market Indecision

While news of whale accumulation and trader optimism may paint a bullish narrative, the on-chain reality tells a different story. The number of new XRP wallet addresses has been declining steadily since December, showing reduced user growth and on-chain engagement.

Furthermore, exchange outflows—once a bullish signal of accumulation—have slowed significantly compared to the strong activity seen at the beginning of 2025. This suggests that many market participants have adopted a “wait and see” approach amid broader macro uncertainty and regulatory developments.

Without strong on-chain fundamentals to back the price, XRP’s recent gains appear fragile.

Liquidation Heatmaps Hint at Downward Price Target

Data from Coinglass provides more insight into where XRP might head next. The 3-month liquidation heatmap shows a strong liquidity pocket around the $2 level—a classic magnet for price in times of uncertainty. This area also represents a psychological round-number support, increasing the likelihood that traders will target it during periods of volatility.

Meanwhile, the 1-week heatmap reveals that XRP saw a brief bounce after hitting the $2.15 liquidity zone, but that relief rally has since evaporated. This loss of momentum suggests further downside could be ahead before any real recovery.

With both upside and downside liquidity building, XRP is likely to consolidate in a narrow range around $2.15 in the short term. However, if bearish pressure continues, the next leg lower could see XRP test the $2 mark.

Legal Optimism and Whale Activity Offer Long-Term Hope

Despite short-term headwinds, there are some bullish undercurrents worth noting. The long-running Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit is reportedly entering its final stages, with expectations leaning toward a favorable outcome for Ripple. If the case concludes in Ripple’s favor, XRP could see renewed buying pressure and investor confidence.

In addition, large whale wallets holding XRP have reached record highs in recent weeks, suggesting strategic accumulation by long-term holders. Data from Binance also shows that a majority of open positions remain long—indicating that sentiment, while cautious, hasn’t turned fully bearish.

Conclusion: Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Watchlist

XRP’s recent rejection at $2.30, combined with fading demand and bearish technical indicators, has tilted the short-term outlook downward. A move to the $2 level appears likely as traders react to weak momentum and await clarity from broader market cues.

That said, strategic investors may view this potential dip as a buying opportunity, especially if the Ripple-SEC case ends favorably and long-term fundamentals continue to improve. For now, traders should watch the $2.15 and $2 zones closely for signs of either breakdown or support.