XRP Struggles Below $1.50 as 72% of Holders Face Losses Above $2

XRP can’t catch a break. The token is trading in the mid-$1.40 range, and a look at the on-chain data shows why that’s a problem for a big chunk of holders.

Nearly 75% of XRP’s realized capitalization is locked up in coins that last moved somewhere between six months and two years ago. Those holders, on average, bought in above $2. So right now, they’re underwater — and that creates a pressure point. The six-to-12-month cohort alone accounts for $39.2 billion of realized cap, with an average acquisition price of $2.02. The one-to-two-year band adds another $27.5 billion, with holders sitting at an average of $2.23. Together, those two groups make up 72.6% of the network’s total realized value, per Glassnode data dated September 11.

That’s a lot of people waiting to break even.

The only cohort that’s pretty much in the clear right now is the three-to-six-month group. Their average entry price is around $1.40 — basically where XRP is trading today. Not great, not terrible. But the older, larger cohorts? They need a serious move upward before any of that latent selling pressure resolves itself.

Binance Flows Hit Six-Month High

On September 11, something moved on Binance. The exchange received 91.23 million XRP while sending out 113.91 million XRP — the highest gross flows in six months. That’s a big number. Binance’s XRP reserves edged up slightly to 2.63 billion, a 0.43% rise from the previous week. Average derivatives open interest also ticked up, to $476.7 million.

What does it mean? Honestly, unclear. Market observers are floating theories — internal wallet reshuffling, market-maker rebalancing — but none of it is confirmed. Large gross flows without a clear directional signal are kind of ambiguous by design. The exchange is moving a lot of XRP around, but whether that’s bullish rotation or just routine housekeeping is hard to say.

And that ambiguity is sort of the story right now. XRP is generating activity without generating conviction. Inflows and outflows are running high, open interest is nudging upward, reserves are barely changed. It’s a market that seems to be coiling but hasn’t decided which way to spring.

The Senate Vote That Could Change Everything

The bigger catalyst is probably legislative.

More context: DOJ Targets $61 Million in Iranian Crypto Linked to Binance in Major Seizure

The Senate’s procedural vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act was set for September 15. The motion aims to open floor debate on the Act — and it needs a three-fifths majority to move forward. That’s not a gimme. The Act has gone through substantial revisions and, if it passes the procedural hurdle, would work toward clarifying the regulatory framework for digital assets including XRP.

Why does this matter for XRP specifically? The SEC previously classified XRP as a digital commodity. Legislation that cements or expands that kind of clarity could meaningfully shift market confidence. Traders who’ve been sitting on the sidelines — or sitting on losses — might see a favorable vote as the signal they’ve been waiting for.

The $2 level isn’t arbitrary. It’s where the bulk of the realized cap is anchored. Getting there would mean a lot of those underwater holders break even or better. And that kind of psychological threshold, combined with regulatory tailwinds, could drive a feedback loop: price rises, dormant coins start moving, volume picks up, sentiment shifts.

But that’s the optimistic read. The pessimistic one is that the procedural vote fails, legislative momentum stalls, and XRP stays range-bound while its largest cohorts remain stuck in the red.

No details yet on how the vote is likely to go.

The interplay between those on-chain cohorts and whatever Binance is doing with its flows will probably be the clearest signal of where sentiment is actually heading. If the older, larger cohorts — the ones sitting at $2.02 and $2.23 average cost basis — start showing movement, that’s worth watching. Dormant coins becoming active tends to mean something. It can mean capitulation, or it can mean renewed confidence. Context matters.

More context: Clearpool Launches $2.3B RLUSD Stablecoin for Institutional Credit on XRPL

For now, the market is basically in a holding pattern. Flows are elevated, open interest is up slightly, reserves are stable, and a big legislative vote just landed. Traders are watching.

The realized cap data puts the stakes in pretty concrete terms: 72.6% of XRP’s network value is held by people who need the price to go higher just to get back to flat. That’s not a small overhang. And with the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act now in the books as of September 15, the market’s next move may come fast.

Average derivatives open interest: $476.7 million.

Hub: XRP price, news, and analysis