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XRP hovers around $1.33. At first glance, this seems decent—but it’s 62.5% below the peak reached in January 2018. Not a correction. A fracture.
Why It Matters
XRP's persistent struggles amidst a broader market recovery highlight the significant impact of regulatory uncertainties, particularly the ongoing battle with the SEC, which has cast a shadow over its long-term viability. Unlike Bitcoin and Ether, which have regained and surpassed their previous highs, XRP's stagnation not only reflects investor sentiment but also raises concerns about the coin's adoption and utility in the evolving crypto landscape. This divergence in performance underscores the importance of regulatory clarity for cryptocurrencies, as it can dramatically influence investor confidence and market dynamics.
Bitcoin has surpassed its previous records. So has Ether. But XRP remains stuck. Those who bought at the dip likely made money—sporadically, in short bursts. But investors who entered at the 2018 peak? They are still in the red, years later. The market capitalization has shrunk by $117 billion since that peak. A staggering figure.
Supply Floods the Price
The real issue for XRP is supply. Essentially, there are too many tokens on the market and not enough demand to absorb them. Since 2017, the circulating supply has increased from 38.7 billion to 63.1 billion units—a 63% rise. Meanwhile, the total market cap has barely decreased by 3%. So the overall pie hasn’t changed much in size, but it’s being sliced into many more pieces. The result: each piece is worth less.
And Ripple continues. The company regularly releases XRP from an escrow—tokens set aside, unlocked in batches. Over the 90 days leading up to October 10, about 898 million XRP were added to the circulating supply. On the destruction side, the token’s burn mechanism—which destroys a small amount of units with each transaction—erased 44,800 XRP over the same period. Not exactly balanced.
44,800 versus 898 million. The numbers speak for themselves.
This imbalance between token creation and destruction directly impacts the price. Even if demand remained stable, this structural selling pressure complicates any sustainable recovery. And demand, precisely, is not really there.
Weak Demand, Lagging Adoption
Institutional interest in XRP is significantly weaker than for Bitcoin or Ether. ETFs linked to these two cryptos have attracted billions. Equivalent products for XRP remain modest—no massive inflows, no comparable enthusiasm. Transaction volumes have also decreased, reducing the market’s ability to absorb new units without price pressure. Fewer buyers, more tokens available: it’s mechanical.
Ripple has pushed hard on international payments. The ecosystem around the RLUSD stablecoin has developed. But it hasn’t been enough to compensate. XRP missed two major waves: DeFi and NFTs. These segments propelled other digital assets to new heights—XRP did not benefit. No strong positioning in decentralized finance, no notable adoption in NFTs. Two opportunities passed without really participating.
And declining trading volumes are no small matter. An illiquid market poorly absorbs new distributions. Each batch of tokens released by Ripple hits a market that may not have the depth to digest them without moving the price downward.
The Weight of the SEC Dispute
The conflict between Ripple and the Securities and Exchange Commission has dragged on for years. Long, costly, exhausting for investor confidence. Throughout this period, XRP’s access to the U.S. market has been severely limited. U.S. exchanges have delisted the token. Institutional investors have preferred to avoid the legal risk.
Ripple has achieved favorable advances in this legal battle. But the scars remain. Such prolonged regulatory uncertainty leaves marks—on reputation, on liquidity, on trust. Even once the case is partially resolved, market sentiment doesn’t automatically rebound. It takes time. Perhaps a lot of time.
Limited access to the U.S. market is no small thing. The United States remains one of the largest financial markets in the world. Being excluded—even partially, even temporarily—from this pool of investors has likely cost XRP dearly in terms of liquidity and valuation.
For XRP to truly rally, the market would need to absorb new distributions without relying solely on speculation. This means stronger organic demand, real adoption in the use cases Ripple is developing—cross-border payments, RLUSD—and institutional interest that materializes concretely, not just in intentions.
It’s unclear if these conditions are met today. Probably not yet.
The 898 million XRP added to the supply in 90 days are still waiting for buyers.
Hub: XRP: Price, News, and Analysis
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current price of XRP compared to its 2018 peak?
XRP is trading around $1.33, which is 62.5% below its January 2018 peak, despite a market capitalization that has only decreased by 3% over the period.
Why does the growing supply of XRP weigh on its price?
The circulating supply has increased from 38.7 billion to 63.1 billion units since 2017, with 898 million XRP added in the 90 days leading up to October 10, against only 44,800 XRP destroyed via the burn mechanism.
What role did the SEC lawsuit play in XRP’s performance?
The long legal battle between Ripple and the SEC limited XRP’s access to the U.S. market and weakened investor confidence, contributing to the price stagnation compared to Bitcoin and Ether.
