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On the morning of November 3, Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $76,990, placing the asset roughly $3,821 above its 200-day moving average. This position marks a distinct departure from previous U.S. midterm election cycles, where Bitcoin was trading below that technical line on election day in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
Shift in Technical Position
The 200-day moving average currently sits at approximately $73,169. This level serves as a key indicator for the longer-term trend, with prices above it generally signaling a shift in favor of buyers. The current positioning contrasts sharply with the 2022 midterm elections, when Bitcoin traded roughly 22% below its 200-day average. Even in 2018, which represented the strongest of the three previous midterm readings relative to this metric, Bitcoin came in 9% below the line.
As of Tuesday morning, Bitcoin stood 5.2% above its 200-day average. This represents a 27.2-percentage-point swing in Bitcoin’s position relative to its own trend compared to the 2022 election cycle. While Bitcoin recently fell below the $77,000 threshold, a move from $77,000 to $76,990 crosses a headline-friendly level by only ten dollars. At the $76,990 price point, the asset still maintained nearly $3,800 of room above its 200-day average, offering a different perspective on the trade than the round-number threshold alone.
Historical Midterm Performance
Historical data indicates that Bitcoin finished higher one year after each of the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm elections. According to, the average gain across these three periods was 53.7%, measured from the election-day close to the close on the same date one year later. This calculation excludes the 2010 midterm cycle, as Bitcoin’s market was then too small, and its outsized return would have distorted the comparison.
In all three previous instances, investors entered election day with Bitcoin trading below its long-term average. The 2026 cycle presents a different scenario, with part of the recovery already established before the vote. This setup offers an opportunity to observe whether Bitcoin can extend an established recovery following the midterms. However, with only three prior data points, there is limited basis for converting the 53.7% average into a specific price target. Additionally, all three previous midterm rallies occurred at similar points in Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle, further complicating direct comparisons.
Friday’s Jobs Report as a Test
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release October’s employment report on Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. This payroll figure provides traders with fresh evidence to weigh against expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates. For Bitcoin, the report serves as a second test within the same week, following the market’s absorption of the election results.
Market reaction to Friday’s data will be monitored closely. If Bitcoin briefly reclaims $77,000, it will generate significant headline attention. More substantively, if the asset finishes the week above its updated 200-day average after both the election and the payroll release, it would provide evidence that Bitcoin’s strongest midterm starting position since 2014 has held up through two distinct market tests.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where is Bitcoin relative to its 200-day moving average on November 3?
On the morning of November 3, Bitcoin traded near $76,990, which is roughly $3,821 above its 200-day moving average of approximately $73,169.
When is the U.S. jobs report scheduled for release?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release October’s employment report on Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
