Bitcoin has once again captured the attention of the crypto market, this time due to a significant spike in on-chain activity. On May 2, the number of active Bitcoin addresses soared to nearly 926,000—the highest figure recorded in over six months. This sharp rise in network activity typically signals renewed interest and broader participation, leading many to speculate whether Bitcoin could soon break through the long-anticipated $100,000 price level. However, despite this surge in engagement, Bitcoin’s price has shown weakness, dropping nearly four percent from its recent high of $97,000 over just a few days.

The increase in active addresses occurred while Bitcoin was trading around $96,951. Historically, such spikes in user activity are associated with growing demand and increased buying pressure. However, the following day saw Bitcoin fall by nearly two percent, casting doubt on the strength behind the address growth. This mirrored a similar event from March, when active addresses rose sharply, only for Bitcoin’s price to decline shortly after. Such patterns suggest that increased network activity does not always equate to upward price movement.

Further analysis of on-chain behavior reveals that the rise in active addresses may have been driven more by speculative interest than genuine demand. On the same day the address count peaked, around 5,000 BTC—valued at approximately $484 million—was transferred to derivative exchanges. This type of movement is typically linked to leveraged trading rather than spot buying, indicating that traders may be positioning for short-term gains rather than holding Bitcoin as a long-term investment. These speculative actions can create temporary excitement without contributing to lasting price growth.

Adding to the uncertainty, the number of active addresses dropped significantly the day after reaching the six-month high. By May 3, the count had fallen to 618,000, marking a two-week low. This sharp decline reinforces the idea that the spike was driven by short-term market behavior rather than sustained interest. At the same time, exchange net flows have remained largely flat since April 29, which was the last time Bitcoin experienced a notable net outflow. That day, Bitcoin was priced around $94,280, and the outflows suggested accumulation. However, the lack of follow-up activity since then signals that many investors are hesitating to commit further capital at current price levels.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin also appears to be losing momentum. The relative strength index is neutral, indicating a lack of strong buying interest, while on-balance volume remains low, showing limited support from trading volume. These indicators reflect a market that is cautious and undecided, even as attention grows around the potential of hitting $100,000.

To realistically reach that milestone, Bitcoin will need more than just a brief uptick in user activity. The price will likely require a combination of sustained spot buying, increased institutional involvement, and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Without these, the recent surge in activity may prove to be a fleeting moment, not a foundation for a long-term rally.

In the current environment, the spike in Bitcoin’s active addresses looks more like a product of speculative enthusiasm than a sign of true market strength. While the $100,000 target continues to generate buzz, the path to that level remains uncertain without stronger and more sustained demand.