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A crypto analyst has identified a pattern on the Bitcoin weekly chart that mirrors the consolidation phase seen in 2023, a period that preceded a rally doubling the asset’s price. Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,000, positioned just above its weekly 50-period moving average at approximately $75,500.
This placement follows a recent rejection from the weekly 100-period moving average near $87,400. The analyst notes that Bitcoin is now situated between these two key technical lines, a configuration that characterizes the current market structure.
2023 Consolidation Recap
In 2023, Bitcoin spent several months consolidating between the weekly 50-period and 100-period moving averages. From mid-March to mid-October, the price remained largely contained within a range of roughly $24,000 to $28,000 while the market recovered from the previous year’s downturn.
The breakout occurred on October 23, 2023, when Bitcoin pushed through its July high of approximately $31,800, setting a new 52-week high. This move resulted in $86 million in short liquidations in a single day. The following day, Bitcoin surpassed $35,000 for the first time since May 2022.
The rally was driven by growing confidence in the approval of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, alongside short liquidations and institutional buying. By early December 2023, the price had recovered above $39,000 and subsequently cleared $44,000. Bitcoin closed 2023 with a gain of approximately 156%.
The momentum continued into 2024. On January 10, 2024, the SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs. By March 2024, Bitcoin was establishing new all-time highs above $73,000.
Current Technical Levels
In late September 2026, Bitcoin was holding near $84,000 before testing the weekly 100-period moving average near $87,400. The price was rejected at this level and has since slid back toward the weekly 50-period moving average.
The analyst identifies the weekly 50-period moving average at $75,500 as the primary support level. If this level fails, the next major support is the weekly 200-period moving average, located at approximately $67,800. On the upside, the first hurdle is $82,000, followed by the weekly 100-period moving average near $87,400.
Momentum indicators currently show a neutral stance. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting near 50, which is considered neutral territory and remains above the levels typically associated with bear markets. The Stochastic RSI indicates weaker short-term momentum, suggesting a potential further dip. The analyst suggests the RSI may decline toward 44 before Bitcoin attempts its next move higher.
The analyst argues that if Bitcoin reclaims and holds above the weekly 100-period moving average, it could open the door for another significant rally, similar to the 2023 breakout. For now, the market is in a consolidation phase, with the outcome dependent on whether Bitcoin can maintain its current support levels.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current Bitcoin price relative to moving averages?
Bitcoin is trading around $76,000, just above the weekly 50-period moving average at $75,500 and below the weekly 100-period moving average near $87,400.
What was the outcome of the similar 2023 pattern?
After consolidating between the 50 and 100-period moving averages in 2023, Bitcoin broke out in October, leading to a 156% gain for the year and new all-time highs in 2024.
