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Bitcoin is trading close to $117,000, yet analysts are divided over what comes next for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. While some predict another strong rally into 2026, others caution that history suggests a deep correction is inevitable.
Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, recently said that Bitcoin could face a drawdown of up to 70% in the next bear market. Although he stressed such an outcome isn’t guaranteed, he pointed to historical cycles as a reason for caution.
Historical Drawdowns as a Warning
In past cycles, Bitcoin has seen steep declines after reaching all-time highs. The data shows:
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2011–2012 bear market: Bitcoin fell 94% from its peak.
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2013–2015 bear market: A drawdown of around 87%.
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2017–2018 bear market: Bitcoin dropped roughly 77%.
If a similar pattern unfolds, Bitcoin’s next downturn could be severe. “Does it have to happen? No,” Cowen explained, “but history would at least caution us to believe that it might.”
From $250K to $75K?
Some of Bitcoin’s most vocal supporters, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, believe the cryptocurrency could rally to $250,000 before the end of 2025. If such a target is reached, a 70% correction would push Bitcoin back down to around $75,000.
Cowen emphasized that he doesn’t believe this cycle will be fundamentally different. “If we start screaming higher in Q4, for me, it’ll just be simple — I’ll take profits back to stables.” He also noted that he might wait until mid-2026 to re-enter the market.
Where Bitcoin Stands Now
At press time, Bitcoin trades at $117,010, up 3.41% in the past month, according to CoinMarketCap. Over the past year, the cryptocurrency has delivered gains of more than 88%, outpacing traditional assets like gold and the S&P 500.
This performance has fueled debate over whether Bitcoin is still in the middle of a bull market or inching closer to its peak. Optimists believe strong institutional inflows, rising adoption, and favorable macroeconomic conditions could extend the cycle well into 2026. Skeptics warn that sentiment could reverse quickly, leading to steep losses.
Euphoria and Risk of Market Tops
Cowen cautioned investors not to underestimate how quickly a cycle peak can form. “Obviously, investors are hopeful we are going to coil up and go into that final rally into the market cycle top,” he said.
However, he warned that market tops rarely come with warning signals. “No one’s going to be like, ‘this is the top.’ Everyone’s going to be euphoric if we start to see a move up.”
Ethereum’s Potential to Outperform
While Cowen is cautious about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, he remains optimistic about Ethereum’s performance relative to BTC.
He expects ETH to “struggle against” Bitcoin in the short term but ultimately outperform as the cycle matures. “Until the end of the cycle, Ethereum will likely outperform right from now until the end,” he said.
The ETH/BTC ratio, which tracks Ether’s strength compared to Bitcoin, is already up more than 8.5% over the past 30 days, according to TradingView. Still, Cowen noted that ETH could face weakness in October before gaining momentum later in the year.
Differing Views From Industry Leaders
Other industry figures have voiced contrasting views on Bitcoin’s outlook.
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Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, believes 2026 will be another strong year: “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years.”
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Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, predicts Bitcoin could climb into the $140,000 to $150,000 range this year before a bear market begins in 2026.
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Michael Saylor, executive chairman of MicroStrategy, has taken a more bullish stance, declaring earlier this year: “Winter is not coming back.”
These conflicting perspectives reflect the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s next move.
The Bigger Picture
Even if Bitcoin does experience a 70% drawdown in the next bear market, long-term believers argue that the cryptocurrency’s resilience is unmatched. Each cycle has produced higher lows and higher highs, with Bitcoin emerging stronger after every correction.
Institutional adoption continues to expand, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing significant inflows and corporations adding BTC to their balance sheets. Meanwhile, regulatory clarity in key markets like the United States could help establish a more stable environment for digital assets.
Conclusion
Bitcoin remains one of the most closely watched assets in global markets. While bullish forecasts predict levels as high as $250,000, historical patterns suggest investors should prepare for the possibility of sharp corrections.
Cowen’s analysis serves as a reminder that even in times of euphoria, Bitcoin’s volatility remains a double-edged sword. Whether the next move brings a parabolic rally or a steep retracement, one thing is certain: Bitcoin’s role as the leading digital asset ensures it will stay at the center of the financial conversation.
