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Bitcoin’s bear market is done. That’s the call from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, and he’s got the numbers to back it up.
CryptoQuant’s Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator just flipped positive for the first time since early October 2025. The reading came in at 0.042 as of August 26 — not a massive number, but crossing zero is the whole point. The indicator spent months deep in negative territory, and that kind of reversal doesn’t happen quietly. Ki Young Ju read it as a clear signal: the 2026 bear market is over.
The indicator itself is built on the Profit and Loss Index, which pulls together several on-chain profitability metrics. We’re talking the market value to realized value ratio — MVRV — plus net unrealized profit/loss, known as NUPL, and the spent output profit ratio, SOPR. CryptoQuant then measures the P&L Index’s distance from its 365-day moving average. When that distance goes above zero, the model says bulls are back in charge.
From -1.244 to Positive Territory
The low point was ugly. February 5 was Bitcoin’s worst day of the cycle — BTC/USD dropped to $60,000 and the Bull/Bear Indicator hit -1.244. That’s deep bear country. Extreme, even. And it wasn’t just a brief dip below zero; the indicator had been negative since October 2025, grinding lower through months of selling pressure, weak demand, and general market misery.
The climb back from -1.244 to +0.042 took roughly six months. Slow, grinding, not pretty. But it got there.
CryptoQuant’s model has a decent track record on this kind of call. The indicator correctly flagged the end of the previous bear market in early 2023, which turned out to be one of the better macro buy signals of that cycle. That history matters here — it’s probably the main reason Ki Young Ju felt comfortable making the bear market call publicly rather than hedging it into meaninglessness.
Other metrics are also pointing up. The relative strength index, the RSI, has been showing signs of bullish recovery alongside the P&L-based indicator. So it’s not just one signal flashing green in isolation. Multiple tools are lining up in the same direction, which is usually when analysts start talking about confirmation.
Not Everyone’s Convinced
But not everyone’s buying it. Not yet.
Trader Rekt Capital is focused on something more immediate: the August monthly close. The argument is that Bitcoin has been trading under a downward resistance trend line that’s been in place since October of last year. Breaking above that line on a monthly close would be a meaningful technical development. Failing to close above it would be a problem — it could mean the recent gains are just a bounce inside a larger downtrend, not the start of a new bull phase.
That’s a real concern. Monthly closes carry weight in technical analysis because they filter out the short-term noise. A daily or weekly close above resistance can get reversed fast. A monthly close is harder to fake.
There’s also the demand question. Some market participants think Bitcoin’s upward move could stall if demand doesn’t keep pace. Liquidity hurdles are apparently sitting just above current spot prices, and if buyers don’t show up in enough size to push through those levels, the rally could run out of fuel. No one’s put a specific number on where those barriers are, at least not in what’s been shared publicly, but the concern is real enough that it’s keeping some traders cautious.
The market is basically split right now. One camp looks at the Bull/Bear Indicator flipping positive, the RSI recovery, and Ki Young Ju’s call, and says the macro bottom is in. The other camp looks at the resistance trend line, the demand uncertainty, and the fact that +0.042 is barely above zero, and says it’s too early to celebrate.
August Close Is the Next Test
So the August monthly close becomes the near-term focal point. It’s probably the cleanest binary the market has right now: either Bitcoin breaks the trend line that’s capped it since October, or it doesn’t. Either outcome tells you something important.
If it closes above resistance, that’s a technical confirmation layered on top of the on-chain signal from CryptoQuant. Two independent frameworks pointing the same direction would make the bull case a lot harder to dismiss.
If it fails to close above the line, the skeptics get ammunition. The on-chain indicators might still be positive, but price action would be telling a different story — and in the short run, price action tends to win the argument.
Worth noting: Bitcoin’s recovery since the February 5 low at $60,000 has already been substantial. Getting from an indicator reading of -1.244 back to positive territory doesn’t happen without meaningful price appreciation. The gains are real. The question is whether they’re durable.
Ki Young Ju says the bear market is over. Rekt Capital says watch the monthly close. And the market itself is sitting somewhere between those two positions, waiting to see which story the August candle tells.
The close is days away.
Hub: Bitcoin price, news, and analysis
Frequently Asked Questions
What is CryptoQuant’s Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator?
It’s a metric built on the Profit and Loss Index, which combines MVRV, NUPL, and SOPR, then measures that index’s distance from its 365-day moving average — a reading above zero is considered bullish.
What was Bitcoin’s lowest price point in the current cycle?
Bitcoin hit $60,000 on February 5, at which point the Bull/Bear Indicator registered -1.244, its most extreme bear reading of the cycle.
Why It Matters
The confirmation of a shift from bear to bull market sentiment, as indicated by CryptoQuant's Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator, could have significant implications for investor psychology and market dynamics. A positive reading may encourage accumulation among traders and institutional investors, potentially leading to increased liquidity and upward price momentum for Bitcoin. This change in market sentiment, especially following an extended period of negativity, could also attract renewed interest from those on the sidelines, further solidifying the recovery phase for cryptocurrency markets.
