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Bitcoin’s recent selloff has shaken investor confidence, but veteran trader Trader Mayne believes the current dip could mark a critical cycle low before another major move higher. Despite widespread liquidations and sharp volatility, Mayne insists the bull cycle isn’t over yet—and the market may be setting up for a final surge heading into the end of 2025.
Speaking in a video update on November 5, Mayne reaffirmed his stance: “I’ve been banging on the drum about the high not being in.” He explained that while short-term trading has been volatile, his long-term Bitcoin outlook remains bullish, adding, “I’m still a BTC maxi from the spot perspective.”
Volatility and Leverage Shakes the Market
The analyst’s comments came shortly after another billion-dollar liquidation event, the latest in a series of leverage-driven selloffs. Just weeks ago, nearly $20 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out on October 10, triggering a cascade of forced selling across the market.
Mayne noted that speculative behavior quickly returned even after the wipeout. “People were right back on with the leverage,” he said, pointing out that many traders continue to repeat the same high-risk habits. Despite the chaos, he emphasized that large-cap assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum still present the best structural opportunities, saying he now focuses mainly on majors rather than altcoins.
The Timing Window for Bitcoin’s Cycle Low
Mayne’s current thesis is grounded in cycle theory, a concept that maps Bitcoin’s performance to a recurring four-year rhythm. Drawing inspiration from analyst Bob Loukas, he suggests the next cycle top could form between late 2025 and early 2026, while the present phase represents the formation of a weekly low.
He pinpointed a narrow timing window—until mid-November (around November 10)—for this potential low to form. To confirm the reversal, Mayne wants to see Bitcoin regain the monthly open near $110,000–$112,000, with a weekly close above that range.
“If we get time and space away from this low and reclaim the monthly open, I’ll treat this decline as exhausted,” he said. He also identified $98,000 as the bull-market invalidation level, meaning a weekly close below that point would challenge the bullish thesis.
Gold’s Rally Could Foreshadow Bitcoin’s Next Move
Interestingly, Mayne drew a connection between gold’s strength and potential Bitcoin upside. Historically, gold tends to rally first, followed by Bitcoin 60 to 90 days later.
With gold’s current uptrend now roughly three months old, he believes the timing aligns perfectly for Bitcoin to begin its next bullish phase. He also expects Bitcoin to outperform gold over the coming months, saying, “I’m confident this chart is due for a big bounce, and gold will underperform Bitcoin through year-end.”
No Blow-Off Top Yet — More Upside Energy Left
A key part of Mayne’s reasoning is the absence of a “blow-off top”—a sharp, euphoric spike typically seen at the end of bull markets. He compared Bitcoin’s muted behavior to the parabolic runs in AI-related stocks and gold, suggesting Bitcoin still has latent upside energy.
“It just doesn’t sit right that Bitcoin hasn’t had its blow-off yet,” he said, implying that the next move could release this pent-up momentum and push prices to new highs.
November’s Early Low Could Define the Month
Mayne also looked at seasonal and structural patterns, noting that Bitcoin often sets its monthly low in the first third of the month. “If we’re bullish for November, I want to be a bull above the monthly open,” he said.
This early-month pattern, combined with his cycle timing model, supports his expectation for a recovery toward $110,000 or higher if the current lows hold.
Acknowledging Bearish Risks
Despite his optimistic outlook, Mayne remains cautious. He pointed out multiple bearish technical signals, including a break in weekly structure, momentum divergences, and the risk of a lower-high formation that could trap late buyers.
“There’s a world where we make a new all-time high, but it’s just a weak one,” he warned, describing the potential for a marginal new peak followed by a swift rejection. In that case, Bitcoin could shift from distribution to a bearish phase.
The Macro Picture: US Dollar and 2026 Outlook
Looking beyond the next few months, Mayne highlighted the US dollar index (DXY) as a major macro factor. He believes the dollar is forming a multi-month low, setting up for a possible deflationary rally that could pressure Bitcoin and other risk assets in 2026.
He added that AI-linked stocks have become overheated, which could amplify any deflationary shock. However, he expects Bitcoin’s next correction—whenever it comes—to be less severe than past 80% drawdowns, thanks to stronger institutional participation.
Final Outlook: Watch for Confirmation
In the near term, the next few days could be critical for Bitcoin. A confirmed weekly low, a reclaim of $110,000, and stabilized ETF inflows would strengthen the case for another rally before year-end.
For now, Mayne’s message is simple: the market may be testing patience before the next big move. “If the market appears to still be bullish, guess what? I can get back on the bull train,” he said, signaling readiness to ride the next wave—if Bitcoin truly finds its bottom this week.
