Bitcoin continues to hold strong above the $104,000 mark, but several key on-chain indicators suggest this could be far from the peak of the current bull run. Despite the steep climb in price, the data shows no clear signs of market euphoria or overheating—indicating that the rally may still have room to continue.

From undervaluation metrics like the MVRV ratio to reduced selling pressure from short-term holders, Bitcoin’s fundamentals point toward a more sustainable upward trend, rather than a temporary surge driven by hype.

MVRV Ratio Suggests Bitcoin Has Not Peaked

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio sits at 2.25—well below the levels historically associated with major bull market tops. In past cycles, MVRV values closer to 3.5 or higher have marked peak periods where investor profit-taking and overvaluation kicked in.

This lower reading indicates that while the asset has rallied impressively, it has likely not yet entered the euphoric phase typical of bull cycle tops. The implication? There may still be substantial room for upward movement before the market reaches overheated territory.

Negative Sentiment Could Be Bullish

Interestingly, despite Bitcoin’s strong performance, market sentiment remains pessimistic. The Weighted Sentiment score has dropped to -0.723, reflecting widespread skepticism among retail and institutional participants.

Normally, rising prices would be expected to drive optimism. But in this case, the skepticism may actually be bullish. When investors don’t fully believe in a rally, they tend to avoid taking profits early, which reduces selling pressure. This creates a window for further price growth, especially if those on the sidelines begin to re-enter the market.

NVT and Puell Multiple Show Undervaluation

Additional indicators support the view that Bitcoin is still undervalued relative to its network fundamentals. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross has dropped over 23%, while the Puell Multiple—a measure of miner profitability—has fallen by more than 25%.

Both metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s price has not yet caught up with its underlying network activity. More importantly, miners are not showing stress, and transaction volumes are stable rather than spiking—indicating that the network is growing organically rather than being pushed by speculative mania.

Exchange Outflows Signal Long-Term Holding

On-chain data shows that exchange outflows have increased by 10.72%, while inflows have declined by 10.27%. This pattern suggests that investors are withdrawing more Bitcoin than they are depositing, typically a sign that holders plan to store their assets in private wallets rather than sell them.

Such holding behavior reduces the available supply on exchanges, which can lead to a supply crunch if buying demand picks up. This dynamic has historically played a significant role in pushing prices higher during bull runs.

Short-Term Holders Remain Quiet

Another unusual but telling trend is the inactivity of short-term holders. According to Realized Cap HODL Waves, activity from wallets holding Bitcoin for less than a day sits at just 0.278—a surprisingly low figure during a strong price rally.

In past cycles, this metric would usually spike as new investors rushed to take profits during upward movements. But the current low reading suggests that short-term traders are not aggressively selling. This reduces selling pressure and contributes to price stability, leaving room for long-term holders to remain in control of the market direction.

Liquidation Map Highlights Near-Term Risk

While fundamentals are strong, leverage metrics introduce a layer of short-term risk. Data from Binance’s liquidation map shows a concentration of long positions just below the $104,000 support level. If Bitcoin dips below this range, it could trigger forced liquidations, accelerating a move downward.

On the flip side, significant short positions exist just above current levels. A price breakout could trap these shorts in a squeeze, driving prices even higher. This creates a near-term scenario where leverage, not fundamentals, could influence the direction of the next big move.

A Market Driven by Fundamentals, Not FOMO

What stands out about Bitcoin’s current price behavior is the lack of traditional froth. Unlike previous bull runs where rapid gains were often driven by hype and emotional buying, the ongoing rally appears more grounded in actual usage and investor conviction.

With sentiment still leaning negative, undervaluation signals flashing green, and a reduction in selling pressure across the board, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum seems far from exhausted. While caution is still warranted due to potential liquidation risk, the broader picture remains one of cautious optimism.

As more investors begin to recognize the strength of Bitcoin’s on-chain data, the rally could gain additional steam. Whether this leads to new all-time highs or a sustained consolidation remains to be seen—but for now, the signs continue to favor the bulls.