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Bitcoin had a rough final day. Down 3% on July 31, slipping under $63,000 briefly — and yet, somehow, the month ended green. A 7.5% gain for July, all things considered, is pretty remarkable given everything that hit the market over the past four weeks.
The list of headwinds was long and ugly. Federal Reserve rate hike expectations crept higher. Bond yields climbed. AI-linked trades unwound fast, dragging risk assets broadly. And then Coldcard — a well-known hardware wallet — got hit by a major security breach that wiped out at least $38 million in Bitcoin. Any one of those would’ve rattled a fragile market. All four at once? Bitcoin held anyway, staying well above its bear market lows throughout.
Analysts at Bitfinex credit that resilience partly to a cleaner derivatives market.
Leverage Got Flushed Out in Late June
The late June selloff did real damage to leveraged positions. Derivatives traders got largely wiped out, and that actually helped Bitcoin in July — average daily liquidations ran lower than what the market saw earlier this year. Less forced selling means less cascade risk. So when macro shocks hit in July, there wasn’t the same mechanical pressure dragging Bitcoin down with every bad headline. Bitfinex analysts think that structural cleanup is a big part of why Bitcoin didn’t fall apart.
It’s not a perfect buffer. But it’s something.
The Coldcard Hack and the Self-Custody Question
The Coldcard exploit is the kind of event that cuts deep in crypto circles. Self-custody — the idea that you hold your own keys, full stop — is basically a founding principle of the space. When a well-regarded hardware wallet gets breached for $38 million worth of Bitcoin, it doesn’t just hurt the victims. It rattles the philosophical argument.
Paul Howard from Wincent flagged the potential pricing risk directly. The stolen Bitcoin hasn’t been liquidated yet, but the possibility that it could be sold into the market is hanging over traders. That kind of overhang is hard to price in cleanly. It’s murky, and markets don’t love murky.
The broader conversation around self-custody risks isn’t new, but the Coldcard incident pushed it back to the front. Exploits in the digital asset space have been rising, and each one adds fuel to the debate about whether the security trade-offs of managing your own crypto are worth it. No easy answer there.
All Eyes on the Jobs Report Now
August starts with the U.S. jobs report looming. Jeff Anderson of STS Digital thinks a new volatility regime could be taking shape as investors try to read mixed signals on future rate moves. Bitcoin is a high-beta asset — when uncertainty spikes, it tends to feel it harder than most.
Bitfinex analysts see caution as the dominant mood. The key question, per their read, is whether Bitcoin ETF inflows pick back up once the Federal Reserve’s direction gets clearer. That’s the catalyst a lot of people are watching. Inflows dried up during the choppiest stretches of July, and getting them back probably requires some clarity on rates.
Lacie Zhang of Bitget Wallet basically called August “choppy” unless ETF demand strengthens or real yields drop. That’s a pretty candid take — and it’s probably the right one. Neither of those conditions is guaranteed right now.
The jobs report is the next major data point after the Fed meeting, and the market is sensitive to anything that shifts the rate narrative. A weak report could push rate cut expectations forward, which would likely be a tailwind for Bitcoin. A strong report? The opposite.
Binance, meanwhile, keeps expanding. The exchange has been pushing into real-world assets, payments, and broader financial services — a strategic move beyond its core spot and derivatives business. Not directly tied to July’s price action, but worth watching as institutional infrastructure around crypto keeps growing.
So Bitcoin enters August with a decent monthly gain, a cleaner derivatives book, an unresolved $38 million hack hanging over it, and a jobs report that could swing sentiment fast. ETF inflows are the wildcard. Lacie Zhang’s “choppy” forecast feels about right.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How much did Bitcoin gain in July?
Bitcoin ended July up 7.5%, despite a 3% drop on the final day that briefly pushed the price below $63,000.
How much Bitcoin was stolen in the Coldcard hack?
The Coldcard security breach resulted in the theft of at least $38 million worth of Bitcoin, though the stolen funds had not yet been liquidated as of the end of July.
What are analysts watching for Bitcoin in August?
Analysts including Lacie Zhang of Bitget Wallet and Jeff Anderson of STS Digital are watching the U.S. jobs report and Bitcoin ETF inflows as the key factors likely to shape Bitcoin’s direction in August.
