Bitcoin’s price has been range-bound in recent weeks, hovering below a key resistance trendline that has capped upside attempts since July 3. Traders are watching closely as the market reaches a critical juncture: either it breaks out into a bullish rally or retreats to test support levels near $99,000.

Sideways Consolidation Amid Major Resistance

The daily chart shows Bitcoin stuck just under a major resistance zone. This level has repeatedly rejected attempts to push higher, creating tension and reinforcing the range-bound trading. Analyst Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant notes that the market often retreats towards the “realized price”—the average cost basis of current holders—before an eventual rally. For Bitcoin, this means a likely dip to around $99,000 to $87,000 if demand remains subdued reddit.com+15cryptorank.io+15crypto.news+15.

On‑Chain Demand Shows Signs of Cooling

Recent CryptoQuant data highlights a noticeable drop in Bitcoin demand. Over the past 30 days, net accumulation has declined from 228,000 BTC in May to just 118,000 BTC in mid-June cryptorank.io+3crypto.news+3bitcoinworld.co.in+3. Meanwhile, institutional activities—such as whale and ETF inflows—fell by more than 50%, while short-term holders offloaded approximately 800,000 BTC since late May reddit.com+6crypto.news+6techjuice.pk+6.

This decline in participation indicates that many earlier buyers and institutional players are pausing or even reversing their positions, leaving the market vulnerable to a dip toward support levels tied to the realized price.

Support at $99K Could Define Next Move

According to Moreno, the $99,000 level represents a key on-chain support—aligned with the realized price zone. If Bitcoin tests and holds here, it may create a platform for a fresh rally. However, failure to gain traction could lead to broader weakness and a drop toward lower support zones like $87,000 en.bitcoinsistemi.com+15cryptorank.io+15ecoinimist.com+15reddit.com+9reddit.com+9reddit.com+9.

Technical charts also point to this range acting as a consolidation area ahead of a major move. As Crypto.news explains, if spot buying remains limited and short positioning increases, Bitcoin could test $92,000, with the realized price playing a crucial role in stabilizing prices .

Macro Tailwinds Could Ignite Year‑End Rally

Despite warning signs in the short term, optimism remains high for Bitcoin’s broader outlook. Analyst Ted Pillows noted that large government spending bills in 2020 acted as catalysts for a major rally—suggesting a similar dynamic could play out if another stimulus package arrives in 2025. CryptoQuant’s Moreno believes that if macroeconomic conditions remain supportive, Bitcoin could climb toward $138,000, with the potential extension of this bull market into 2026 .

Indeed, Moreno’s projections outline a possible path forward: a test of $99,000, consolidation, and then renewed momentum as liquidity returns to the market. With historically strong fourth-quarter performance during bull cycles, the second half of 2025 could set the stage for an explosive rally.

Balancing Lower Risk and Bullish Potential

For traders and investors, the upcoming price action around $99,000 is pivotal. A successful bounce at this level would likely attract buyers, validating on-chain signals and paving the way toward $120,000 or $138,000 targets. Conversely, a breach of this zone—and especially of lower supports—could prompt more conservative positioning and increase volatility.

Morgan Stanley-style caution is prudent, particularly for short-term traders. But those with a longer time horizon may view any dip as a compelling opportunity to accumulate ahead of next year’s expected surge.

In summary, Bitcoin faces a short-term test around $99,000, driven by fading demand and shifting trader behavior. However, macroeconomic catalysts and historical seasonality still favor a bullish resolution—potentially launching Bitcoin toward new all-time highs as the year progresses.