Bitcoin’s price has fallen below a critical support level, raising concerns across the crypto market. At the time of writing, BTC is hovering around $102.6K after slipping from recent highs earlier this week. The sharp decline follows rising geopolitical tensions, particularly after Israel conducted air strikes on Iran, fueling sell-offs across global markets.

The broader cryptocurrency market also turned red, with over $1.1 billion in leveraged liquidations reported. Traditional markets echoed the fear, as S&P 500 futures dropped 1.9%, while crude oil and gold prices surged. Bitcoin’s pullback comes during a time of high uncertainty, and the next few days may be pivotal in shaping short-term price action.

Geopolitical Pressure Triggers Broad-Based Sell-Off

Bitcoin has often shown resilience during moments of macro stress, but the recent drop below $102.8K is being watched closely by market participants. This level acted as an important short-term support, and its breakdown has heightened fears of a deeper correction toward the $100K level or even lower.

The market has dealt with similar pressures in the past, including regulatory crackdowns and inflation shocks, but the current situation is different due to a combination of weaker momentum and technical breakdowns. A recovery remains possible, but sentiment must shift quickly to avoid further losses.

Technical Indicators Signal Weakness

The daily chart for Bitcoin shows the early formation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, a structure traditionally considered bullish. However, for this to confirm, Bitcoin would need to bounce from current support and rally back to the neckline at approximately $110,500. Only then could a true breakout toward a new all-time high begin.

Current technical indicators point to ongoing weakness. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has fallen below zero, reflecting capital outflows and increased selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to decline steeply. RSI is now testing an ascending support line, and a breakdown below it could signal the start of a new bearish trend, potentially dragging BTC below $100K.

Adding to concerns, Bitcoin has printed three consecutive daily bearish candles, wiping out earlier weekly gains and confirming a shift in market momentum. Trading volumes have also declined, further limiting the chances of a near-term rally.

Is a Recovery to $110K Still Possible?

Despite current bearish signals, a daily close above $103K to $104K could trigger renewed interest from bulls and stall the downward momentum. This would allow for a potential consolidation phase before any significant upside movement.

Long-term fundamentals still paint a bullish picture. Bitcoin maintains a 31% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), and institutional involvement continues to expand, with increased ETF participation and long-term holder accumulation providing support.

Still, a rebound remains tied to two factors: geopolitical de-escalation and increased on-chain buying activity. Without these, BTC could continue its decline into the key support zone between $98K and $100K.

All Eyes on the Weekly Close

The upcoming weekly close is expected to play a decisive role in Bitcoin’s next major move. A positive weekly candle would help restore some confidence and may signal the start of a renewed push toward $105K or higher.

On the other hand, failure to hold current levels could accelerate losses and bring more pressure on altcoins, many of which are already down by 6% to 9% amid the broader correction.

In summary, Bitcoin is navigating a crucial phase marked by external conflict and internal market fragility. The coming days will reveal whether BTC can hold strong and resume its upward trend or face deeper losses as uncertainty lingers. Investors should monitor price action closely and prepare for heightened volatility across the crypto landscape.