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Ethereum’s strong recovery this month has caught the attention of analysts, particularly because of its performance against Bitcoin. After months of lagging behind, Ethereum is now gaining ground in the ETH/BTC trading pair—a signal that could mark a major turning point not only for ETH, but for the broader altcoin market as well.
In the crypto world, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) serves as a key gauge for understanding how much of the total crypto market cap is controlled by Bitcoin. For much of 2023 and early 2024, Bitcoin’s dominance has been in a clear uptrend. But if recent price action is any indication, that trend may be nearing its end. And that could open the door for altcoins—especially Ethereum—to outperform in the coming months.
Ethereum’s Rise and What It Means
Ethereum has staged a powerful comeback. From a low of $2,373 in early July 2025, ETH has surged 44% to reach $3,426. Much of this momentum has been fueled by increased institutional interest and rising inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs, a trend that has significantly boosted its appeal among large investors.
What’s even more important than the price of Ethereum in USD is how it’s performing relative to Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC trading pair, which tracks the value of Ethereum in terms of Bitcoin, has long been a useful indicator of altcoin strength. And on higher timeframes, that pair appears to be turning bullish for the first time in over a year.
On the weekly chart, ETH/BTC has broken above the 0.02629 resistance level and is now approaching a key zone at 0.02968. If it pushes above this level, it would signal a long-awaited trend reversal and could mark the beginning of a new phase where Ethereum and other altcoins gain market share from Bitcoin.
Why This Affects Bitcoin Dominance
Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland recently noted on X (formerly Twitter) that if ETH/BTC maintains this upward trajectory, there’s a “99% chance” that Bitcoin dominance has already peaked. That statement has serious implications.
Bitcoin Dominance has been rising steadily since 2023 and reached a high of 54.3% earlier this year. Although it has retreated slightly to around 62.4%, no clear reversal has occurred yet on the BTC.D chart. But if ETH/BTC continues to strengthen, it would likely lead to further downside in Bitcoin dominance.
Why does this matter? Because historically, when Bitcoin dominance starts to drop after a strong rally, altcoins tend to outperform. This period is often referred to as an “altcoin season,” and it’s typically characterized by rapid gains in smaller cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum.
However, Hyland also cautions that this shift won’t happen overnight. Even if Bitcoin dominance is topping out, the process could take weeks or months to fully play out. Markets move in waves, and both Ethereum and Bitcoin will likely see periods of consolidation or even short-term declines during this transition.
Does This Mean Bitcoin’s Bull Run Is Over?
Not necessarily. A declining Bitcoin dominance doesn’t automatically mean Bitcoin’s price will fall. It simply means that other cryptocurrencies may begin to grow faster than Bitcoin. In other words, Bitcoin could still go up, just not as fast as some altcoins.
In fact, during previous bull markets, Bitcoin has often led the initial charge before passing the torch to altcoins like Ethereum. This rotation of capital from Bitcoin into other digital assets is a common phase in crypto market cycles, especially during the latter stages of a bull run.
Following the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024, many analysts expected another leg up for the crypto market—and that prediction appears to be unfolding. If ETH continues to outperform and BTC.D confirms a reversal, it could signal the beginning of the final bullish push of this cycle.
Key Levels to Watch
For traders watching these charts closely, two levels are crucial:
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On the ETH/BTC chart, a move above 0.02968 would confirm the beginning of a new uptrend for Ethereum against Bitcoin.
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On the BTC.D chart, a breakdown below the 62.4% support zone would likely signal that Bitcoin dominance is entering a downtrend, opening the door for altcoin gains.
Until these levels break decisively, caution is still warranted. But momentum appears to be shifting—and fast.
What Should Traders and Investors Do?
For Ethereum and altcoin holders, the signs are increasingly positive. If ETH/BTC continues upward and BTC.D turns lower, it could mark the start of an altcoin-heavy phase of the market cycle. Historically, these periods have produced some of the largest gains for altcoin investors.
Bitcoin holders, however, shouldn’t panic. A decline in dominance doesn’t mean losses are coming—it just means growth may be slower compared to other coins. Bitcoin remains the foundational asset of the crypto market and will likely benefit from institutional demand, macroeconomic trends, and its status as digital gold.
Investors should consider adjusting their portfolios gradually, keeping in mind the bigger picture: the crypto market is still in a macro uptrend. Rotations between Bitcoin and altcoins are normal and often signal a healthy, maturing market.
As always, timing is everything. These shifts take time to develop, and short-term volatility is inevitable. But for those watching closely, the ETH/BTC breakout and Bitcoin Dominance reversal may be signaling the next major move in crypto—and it could be one for the altcoins.
