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US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $1 billion in net outflows between Nov. 9 and Nov. 13, a period that coincided with the MVRV ratio falling below the 1.2 threshold identified by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. The valuation metric, which compares Bitcoin’s current market value to the value of coins at their last-moved prices, has triggered a preset alert for the third time in what Darkfost characterizes as the 2026 bear market. As of 10:44 UTC on Nov. 15, Bitcoin traded at $65,461, a level that had been refreshed approximately five minutes prior to the data capture.
As of 17:03 UTC, Bitcoin traded at $64,743, -0.6% over 24 hours, with $50.0 billion in 24-hour volume.
ETF Outflows and Valuation Signals
Farside Investors tracked the combined net withdrawals across the five completed ETF sessions, totaling the $1 billion figure. The final day of that window, Nov. 13, accounted for $185 million in net outflows. Darkfost’s alert on Nov. 15 was the latest in a series of signals he has issued during the current market cycle. Previous alerts occurred in February when Bitcoin crossed the $60,000 mark, and again in June and July when the price reached $57,000. The analyst noted that his valuation preset is adjusted over time to account for the long-term decline in the MVRV ratio, though the specific history of these threshold changes and any reproducible backtests were not provided in the alert.
CryptoQuant’s methodology guide identifies an MVRV ratio below 1 as a possible-bottom region. The current sub-1.2 alert is distinct from that lower threshold, indicating that while prices are low relative to historical averages, the metric has not yet entered the deepest valuation zone defined by the platform’s standard guidelines. The divergence between the 1.2 alert level and the 1.0 methodology threshold remains a key point of distinction in the current analysis.
SOPR and Demand Requirements
XWIN Japan, a separate entity within the CryptoQuant ecosystem, issued a note on Nov. 15 citing a Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) near 0.98. A SOPR value below 1 indicates that measured coin outputs moved at an aggregate loss, suggesting sellers are realizing deficits on the coins they are transacting. The note did not specify the exact SOPR variant used or the precise observation time. Methodologically, an Adjusted SOPR excludes outputs younger than one hour, while long-term and short-term holder versions separate coins based on a 155-day boundary.
XWIN Japan argued that a convincing recovery in the market requires the SOPR to hold above 1, accompanied by renewed spot demand and ETF inflows. The current combination of sub-1.2 MVRV and near-0.98 SOPR suggests that while valuation metrics point to a potential bottom, the necessary demand evidence has not yet materialized. The presence of net outflows from US spot ETFs further underscores the lack of institutional demand required to confirm a sustained price reversal.
Nvidia Earnings as a Risk Test
Nvidia is scheduled to release its financial results on Nov. 17, with the earnings call set to begin at 2 p.m. Pacific Time. The company plans to release its results around 1:20 p.m. Pacific. Market participants view Nvidia’s performance as a near-term risk test for assets like Bitcoin, given the tech giant’s influence on broader market sentiment and risk appetite. The outcome of this earnings report will be closely watched as a potential catalyst or drag for crypto assets in the days following the release.
