Bitcoin (BTC) stayed steady over the weekend, holding around $108,000, as traders turned their attention to a critical week of global financial events. The highlight is the European Central Bank’s annual policy forum in Sintra, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on Tuesday.

Although the Bitcoin price movement has remained relatively calm, analysts believe that could soon change. Both on-chain signals and derivatives market trends suggest that the crypto market may be heading toward a fresh wave of volatility.

Traders Watching ECB Forum for Market Direction

Global investors are closely watching the ECB Forum 2025, which is expected to shape market sentiment. The event, themed “Adapting to Change,” comes at a time when central banks face pressure to manage inflation while supporting fragile economic growth.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to maintain a cautious tone on interest rate cuts, noting that more data on inflation and employment is needed before any easing begins. His comments could influence not only traditional markets but also crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Whales and On-Chain Data Hint at Volatility Return

According to Axel Adler Jr., an independent crypto analyst and frequent contributor to CryptoQuant, there are strong signs that Bitcoin might be entering a more volatile phase. Adler notes that large Bitcoin holders—often referred to as “whales”—are moving significant amounts of BTC onto centralized exchanges.

This behavior, combined with declining exchange reserves and weakened stablecoin inflows, often marks the start of high-volatility periods. Adler emphasized that as long as BTC stays above $108,000, the market may continue to push toward the next key level of $112,000.

Options Market Shows Defensive Bitcoin Sentiment

Traders in the Bitcoin derivatives market are showing signs of caution. Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, reports that about 20% of open interest on the Derive platform is concentrated in downside puts, with strike prices at $85,000, $100,000, and $106,000.

This clustering around lower strike puts suggests that many Bitcoin traders are hedging against the risk of a price drop, possibly due to macroeconomic uncertainties or profit-taking after BTC’s recent gains.

At the same time, Deribit, one of the largest crypto derivatives platforms, is approaching one of the biggest options expiries of the year. According to Jean-David Péquignot, Chief Commercial Officer at Deribit, the size of this expiry is partly due to a general rise in BTC derivatives trading. Volumes in Q2 2025 are reportedly 25% higher than the previous year’s average.

Ethereum Traders Turn Bullish Ahead of ETHCC

While Bitcoin traders lean cautious, Ethereum (ETH) appears to be benefiting from more optimistic sentiment. Options traders are increasing their exposure to upside calls, especially at the $2,900 and $3,200 strike levels.

This bullish activity is likely linked to the upcoming Ethereum Community Conference (ETHCC) in Cannes, a major annual event in the Ethereum ecosystem. In the past, ETHCC has been a venue for key project reveal and technical updates, which often generate short-term price rallies.

Cole Kennelly, founder of Volmex Finance, also noted a sharp increase in trading volume on gTrade, particularly in synthetic volatility index perpetuals tied to both Ethereum and Bitcoin. This signals growing demand for volatility-based trading strategies.

Outlook: Calm Before the Storm?

Bitcoin’s current sideways movement near $108,000 might just be the calm before a major shift. With central bank speeches, options expiries, and ecosystem-specific events like ETHCC, crypto traders are positioning themselves for potential price swings in the days ahead.

Analysts agree that Bitcoin’s next move depends largely on macro signals—especially the tone set by central bank leaders like Powell and Lagarde. If the ECB Forum results in clearer guidance on rate cuts or global economic support, risk-on assets like Bitcoin could rally. But if uncertainty continues, the market may stay defensive.

Either way, traders are preparing for a return to volatility, and the next few days could be critical in shaping the summer outlook for the broader crypto market.