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Bitcoin is sitting just under $76,500 right now, and the move higher tracks almost perfectly with a recovery in US equities after the Federal Reserve raised benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points — its first hike since July 2023. Stocks bounced. Bitcoin followed. Not a dramatic surge, but a clear directional read.
The S&P 500 gained 0.9% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.5% after the Fed moved rates into the 3.75%–4% range. Investors had been bracing for the hike for weeks, and when it finally landed, the reaction was more relief than panic. Bitcoin’s 24-hour chart stayed pretty calm through it all — TradingView data showed price volatility easing off, with only minor swings around nearby liquidity pockets. CoinGlass data backed that up, showing bid and ask liquidity thickening around the current spot price. That’s basically what you’d expect in a rangebound market: no big breakout, no collapse, just prices oscillating in a tighter band while traders wait for the next catalyst.
BTC/USD is up around 0.5% on the day.
Fed Ends Three Years of Easing
The 25-basis-point move isn’t just a number. It ends a prolonged stretch where the Fed was either cutting rates or holding them flat — a period that broadly supported risk assets, including crypto. Tighter money is a different environment. Historically, higher rates squeeze liquidity and make speculative assets less attractive relative to bonds and cash. But the market didn’t sell off. It bought.
Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter pushed back on the doom narrative a bit, saying strong asset performance could continue even with higher rates in play. That’s the bull case, anyway. And it’s not crazy — Bitcoin actually hit month-to-date lows earlier in the week before bouncing back toward $76,500. The recovery came fast.
Globally, the rate picture is shifting too. The European Central Bank raised rates by 0.25% last week. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to follow soon. So this isn’t just a US story. Central banks worldwide are moving in the same direction, and crypto markets are going to feel that pressure one way or another. Whether it’s already priced in is the real question.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Drops to 60
Here’s where it gets more nuanced. CryptoQuant, the onchain analytics platform, flagged several macroeconomic headwinds that could slow Bitcoin’s momentum. The firm’s proprietary Bull Score Index dropped from 80 to 60 — still in bullish territory, but clearly cooling. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said the trend remains bullish but that the drop in the index points to a slowdown worth watching.
Moreno’s read: diminishing US demand for Bitcoin, rising altcoin inflows pulling capital sideways, and macro uncertainties — specifically the CLARITY Act delay and the potential for further Fed hikes — all point toward consolidation rather than a clean breakout. He’s watching $70,000 and the $62,000–$65,000 range as key support levels if things get choppy.
And that’s probably the right framing right now. A Bull Score of 60 doesn’t mean sell everything. It means don’t get overconfident. The August rally — Bitcoin rose 25% that month — created a lot of unrealized gains sitting in the market. Some of that is going to get taken off the table. That’s normal.
The liquidity picture adds another layer. When bid-ask spreads tighten and liquidity clusters around spot price, it usually means the market is in a holding pattern. Big money isn’t rushing in or rushing out. Traders are watching. The rangebound conditions CoinGlass flagged are consistent with that — nobody wants to make a bold move until there’s more clarity on where rates go next and whether the CLARITY Act actually moves forward.
Altcoin inflows are worth a closer look too. When capital rotates into smaller tokens, it can drain momentum from Bitcoin even during technically bullish periods. That rotation has been happening, per CryptoQuant’s data, and it’s one reason the Bull Score slipped despite Bitcoin’s price holding up reasonably well.
Short-term, the $70,000 level is the one to watch. It’s a round number and a psychologically significant one. If Bitcoin can’t hold above it during the next wave of selling pressure, the $62,000–$65,000 range becomes the real test. Moreno didn’t call a breakdown — he’s still in the bull camp — but he’s clearly not pounding the table either.
The Fed’s next move matters a lot here. One 25-basis-point hike is manageable. A series of them changes the calculus. For now, Bitcoin is holding. The Bull Score is still above 50. US stocks are up. And the market is waiting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the Federal Reserve do and how does it affect Bitcoin?
The Fed raised benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4%, its first hike since July 2023. Bitcoin held near $76,500 following the move, gaining roughly 0.5% on the day as US equities also recovered.
What is CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index showing for Bitcoin?
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index dropped from 80 to 60, per head of research Julio Moreno. The reading stays in bullish territory but points to slowing momentum, with key support levels at $70,000 and $62,000–$65,000.
Why It Matters
The correlation between Bitcoin and equities following the Fed's interest rate hike underscores the growing interdependence between cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets. As institutional interest in Bitcoin increases, its price movements are increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors, such as central bank policies, leading to a more complex landscape for investors. Furthermore, this relationship may signal a shift in how crypto assets are perceived, aligning them more closely with risk assets and traditional market dynamics.
