Bitcoin hashprice drops 8.7% amid stalled network growth

Expected daily revenue per unit of computing power for Bitcoin miners fell 8.7% in one week, according to an October 30 analysis by Hashrate Index, the Luxor-operated research platform. The drop came as the mining forward market priced in little additional competition through December.

Hashprice and Network Implied Power

Hashprice—the expected daily mining revenue for a unit of computing power—hit $32.86 per petahash per second per day on November 2 at 18:00 UTC. This is an 8.7% slide from the $35.99 recorded a week prior.

The October 30 analysis suggests implied network computing power will reach 1,056 exahashes per second in November and 1,059 exahashes per second in December. These forward-implied levels differ from observed hashrate or scheduled difficulty changes. Both figures align closely with the 1,062 exahashes per second average from the mining epoch ending October 29.

Calculations assume transaction fees of about 0.02 BTC per block when translating contract prices into implied growth. Different fee outcomes may alter this interpretation.

Difficulty Rebound and Forward Contracts

The flattening curve follows a sharp rise in network difficulty, which climbed 16.4% from 127.45 trillion before the September 19 adjustment to 148.36 trillion on October 29. A pause in new competition leaves existing miners fighting at this higher level.

As of November 2, the average forward hashprice from November 2023 through April 2027 was $33.04 per petahash per second per day. This serves as a revenue benchmark, though actual execution depends on contract terms.

Selling forward contracts stabilizes benchmark revenue for output matched to specific quantities and dates. In Luxor’s cash-settled structure, sellers receive the difference if the daily index falls below the agreed price and pay if it rises. This hedge does not guarantee machine production, making the alignment of output and dates critical.

Alternatively, deliverable forwards provide upfront payment against delivery to Luxor’s mining pool, subject to credit checks and possible delivery margins. Luxor acts as the counterparty for both contract types, confirming trades via its order book.

For operators with fixed dollar power costs, stabilizing revenue improves cash-flow planning. Higher-cost fleets need this stability to cover electricity and expenses, while efficient fleets have more margin. Dollar hashprice fluctuates based on Bitcoin’s price, fees, subsidy, and difficulty; weaker pricing or fees can cut unhedged revenue even if competition remains flat.