Bitcoin [BTC] continues to hold above the critical $100,000 level, signaling resilience in the face of mixed market dynamics. On one hand, miners have shown growing confidence by drastically reducing their sell pressure to the lowest levels seen since early 2024. On the other, the derivatives market is flashing warning signs, with a substantial buildup of leveraged long positions that could lead to sudden volatility.

Miners Signal Confidence

Data from Alphractal shows that Bitcoin miner sell pressure has plummeted to its lowest point in over a year. The miner pressure metric, which compares 30-day outflows to the average BTC reserve held by miners, indicates that large-scale sellers are opting to hold their assets instead of cashing out. This is often a bullish sign, historically associated with accumulation periods and the expectation of further price increases.

The last time miner pressure was this subdued, BTC experienced a relatively stable trading period, followed by a significant price move. Current data suggests a similar backdrop, hinting that miners believe the market has more upside potential. This conviction is likely fueled by Bitcoin’s ability to remain stable above $100K after its recent recovery from sub-$90K lows.

However, the picture isn’t entirely risk-free.

Long Leverage Builds Up Dangerously

Despite bullish signals from miners, the derivatives landscape tells a more cautious story. A heatmap of Bitcoin liquidations shows a high concentration of leveraged long positions between $100,000 and $110,000. This stacking of aggressive longs suggests that traders are betting heavily on continued upside.

The problem? If BTC were to suddenly correct downward—even modestly—it could trigger mass liquidations of these long positions. Such cascading events have historically resulted in extreme volatility and steep price drops. With much of the recent rise in open interest driven by overleveraged longs, the market appears top-heavy and vulnerable to swift downside moves.

Technical Indicators Flash Mixed Signals

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $104,336—a minor decline of 0.27% on the day. While price action remains above the psychologically important $100K threshold, some technical indicators hint that the momentum might be slowing.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting near 75, firmly in overbought territory. This level typically precedes short-term corrections as traders lock in profits and new buyers hesitate at elevated valuations. Meanwhile, the On-Balance Volume (OBV), a metric that tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure, has flattened out. This plateau suggests that bullish momentum is stalling even as price attempts to climb higher.

Such conditions are often precursors to either consolidation or corrective dips, particularly when paired with high leverage in the derivatives market.

Consolidation or Correction?

Bitcoin’s immediate outlook hinges on the interplay between miner behavior and speculative positioning. If miner confidence continues and retail participation rises cautiously, BTC could stabilize above $100K and attempt another run at its all-time highs. A break above $106,800, the next key resistance level, could open the door to a renewed rally.

However, if price stumbles near current levels and leveraged longs begin to unwind, the correction could be sharp and sudden. Miners, despite their current conviction, might start selling into strength to lock in profits, which would compound the pressure from long liquidations.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is at a pivotal juncture. Miners are holding back on selling, a clear vote of confidence in long-term price stability. But the market is also heavily leveraged, and that leverage tilts dangerously to one side. If BTC can maintain its footing above $100K without triggering major liquidations, the bull trend remains intact. If not, the resulting volatility could test both miner conviction and investor patience in the days ahead.