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Bitcoin pushed close to $79,000 Tuesday, bouncing back after an initial stumble tied to fresh U.S. inflation data. Traders are basically holding their breath ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate call, and the market is moving like it.
The Consumer Price Index came in at 3.4% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month — right in line with what analysts had penciled in. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, told a slightly messier story. The annual core rate actually fell to 2.4%, which sounds encouraging. But the monthly core reading hit 0.3%, beating the 0.2% forecast, and that’s the number that probably matters more to the Fed right now. These figures landed just days before the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting, the one everyone in the market has circled on the calendar. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a 25-basis-point hike at 69%. Polymarket has it at 62%, Myriad at 61%. Not a lock, but not a long shot either. Back in July, three regional Fed presidents had already come out in favor of hiking — so the groundwork’s been laid.
Bitcoin didn’t love the CPI print at first.
It dipped, then clawed back. That kind of whipsaw is pretty much standard now whenever macro data drops. The broader crypto market came along for the ride — Ethereum jumped 7.48% to $2,611, Solana crossed back above $100 with a 4.53% gain, and Zcash had a genuinely wild week, up 23.09% over seven days. Total crypto market cap crept toward $2.7 trillion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed to 73, which puts it firmly in “greed” territory. Sentiment’s strong, at least on paper.
ETF Outflows and Derivatives Surge
But spot Bitcoin ETFs told a different story. Net outflows hit roughly $330.5 million — not exactly a ringing endorsement from institutional money. It’s murky whether that reflects genuine bearishness or just profit-taking ahead of the Fed announcement. Probably some of both. Meanwhile, the derivatives market went into overdrive. Open interest in crypto futures rose 1.52% to $429.99 billion. Trading volume climbed 2.27% to $877.11 billion. And liquidations? A brutal $897.09 million worth, split between $493.85 million in long positions and $403.24 million in shorts. Both sides got hurt. That’s the kind of session that reminds traders this market doesn’t really care which direction you’re positioned.
The gap between ETF outflows and derivatives activity is worth sitting with for a second. Retail and active traders are clearly engaged — futures volume and open interest don’t lie. But institutional money seems cautious, or at least slower to move. Big funds don’t love uncertainty, and a Fed meeting with 69% odds of a hike is still a 31% chance of nothing happening.
Bitcoin’s Golden Cross and Key Levels
On the technical side, Bitcoin formed a golden cross — the 50-day exponential moving average crossed above the 200-day EMA. That’s a classic bullish signal, and traders noticed. The Relative Strength Index sat at 59.7, and the Average Directional Index landed in the 40s, both pointing to a trend with some real legs. Critical support sits between $73,986 and $75,569. The next resistance level to watch is $82,281. Bitcoin needs to clear that cleanly for the bull case to get a lot louder.
Worth noting: the gap between the two moving averages isn’t huge. That’s kept some traders from going all-in on the golden cross narrative. A signal without conviction behind it can fade fast.
And there’s the Fed decision itself — scheduled for 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday. That’s the event that’ll probably matter more than any chart pattern in the short run. A 25-basis-point hike could go either way for crypto. Some traders treat rate hikes as risk-off signals and sell. Others have started reading Fed tightening as a sign the economy’s strong enough to handle it, which can actually lift risk assets. It’s genuinely unclear which playbook the market runs this time.
Zcash’s 23.09% weekly gain stands out in a market where most assets were moving in the 4–7% range. No single obvious catalyst for it — sometimes momentum just finds a coin and runs.
The Fed speaks Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. Bitcoin’s support sits at $73,986.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where was Bitcoin trading ahead of the Fed decision?
Bitcoin was trading near $79,000, approaching but not yet breaking the $80,000 level, after rebounding from an initial dip following the CPI data release.
How much was liquidated in the crypto derivatives market during this session?
Total liquidations hit $897.09 million, with $493.85 million in long positions and $403.24 million in short positions wiped out.
Why It Matters
The movement of Bitcoin nearing $79,000 amidst the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's rate decision underscores the crypto market's increasing sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators, particularly inflation data. With substantial liquidations amounting to $897 million, traders are clearly on edge, reflecting broader market anxieties about interest rates and their potential impact on asset valuations. This volatility highlights the ongoing intertwining of traditional financial factors with the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market, making it essential for investors to remain attuned to both economic signals and market sentiment.
