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Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, is still betting that Bitcoin will be above $100,000 by the end of 2026. It’s not a certainty. It’s a calculated bet, with specific conditions to meet — sustained institutional demand, a less hostile financial backdrop, and market momentum that still needs to be confirmed.
Why It Matters
This matters because it frames Bitcoin’s next move as more than a short-term price target: the bigger question is whether institutional flows and broader financial conditions can support a sustained trend. If the market fails to confirm momentum around the next breakout level, it would suggest the rally still lacks the conviction needed to justify higher-end year-ahead forecasts.
The price is hovering around $82,000. Reaching $100,000 would mean a gain of about 22% over the remaining weeks. In a market this volatile, that’s still possible — but only if several factors align before December 31. Rasmussen isn’t presenting it as a done deal. There are conditions, and they haven’t all been met yet.
Bitwise’s forecast is not universally shared.
Two Firms, Two Very Different Scenarios
Adam Morgan McCarthy, head of research at LO, sees things differently. In his view, Bitcoin is more likely to trade between $85,000 and $95,000 through the end of 2026. No spectacular surge in this scenario — just a more cautious range, grounded in the real risks posed by the current macro environment: persistent inflation, interest rates staying high, and pressure on liquidity.
The gap between the two forecasts is clear. Bitwise is targeting above $100,000, while LO tops out at $95,000. It’s not just a matter of numbers — it’s two different readings of the market, two ways of interpreting the same data. And both could be wrong.
On the institutional front, the numbers are there, but they’re slowing. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, says cryptocurrency investment products have attracted about $11.1 billion in inflows since mid-July. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs received nearly $6 billion in the third quarter, including about $3.5 billion in August alone. Those amounts support Bitwise’s bullish thesis — institutional buying mechanically reduces the Bitcoin available for sale.
But Butterfill adds that these purchases have slowed. A lasting rebound would require steady flows, not just a one-off spike. Institutional demand can support the price, but it can’t propel it on its own.
U.S. Inflation Complicates the Whole Equation
Macroeconomic data is working against the optimistic scenario. The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in September from August, and 3.7% year over year. Core inflation — excluding food and energy — rose 0.3% month over month and 2.6% year over year. Not catastrophic, but enough to keep pressure on the Fed.
Gasoline was a major contributor to the monthly increase. Its price jumped 9.1% in September, accounting for more than half of the total rise in prices that month. Rising energy costs add to inflation data that complicates expectations for interest rates.
The Federal Reserve had already raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points in September, to a range now between 3.75% and 4%. If it raises rates again, risk-free investments become more attractive. That means less liquidity available for volatile assets like Bitcoin.
McCarthy is clear on this point: for BTC to get back above $100,000, oil prices would need to fall, inflation would need to slow, and expectations for the Fed would have to shift. The market would need to abandon the prospect of a rate hike in December in favor of a pause. Not easy.
The $90,000 Level Is a Technical Hurdle
Derivatives tell another part of the story. Luca Invernizzi, a trader at Laser Digital — a subsidiary of Nomura — believes the recent pullback has flushed out some of the most vulnerable leveraged positions. A purge, essentially. That could stabilize the market if buyers return.
$90,000. That’s the level that matters now.
If Bitcoin breaks through that level and holds there, short traders would be forced to buy back their positions to close them. Those forced purchases could accelerate a rebound toward $100,000. But the effect depends entirely on whether the price can hold that level under pressure — not just touch it, but stay there.
Conversely, if ETFs see no new inflows and inflation remains sticky, the upside potential remains limited. Institutional inflows, energy prices, and interest-rate expectations continue to dictate the direction.
Bitcoin is trading at $82,000. First, it has to reclaim $90,000 and hold it.
Hub: Bitcoin: Price, News and Analysis
Frequently Asked Questions
What target has Bitwise set for Bitcoin in 2026?
Ryan Rasmussen believes Bitcoin can end the year above $100,000, compared with a price then close to $82,000, provided institutional demand remains sustained and the financial backdrop improves.
What range does LO forecast for Bitcoin?
Adam Morgan McCarthy expects the price to be between $85,000 and $95,000 through the end of 2026, citing risks tied to U.S. inflation and a possible Fed rate hike.
What role do Bitcoin ETFs play in this scenario?
According to James Butterfill of CoinShares, crypto products have attracted about $11.1 billion since mid-July, including nearly $6 billion through U.S. spot ETFs in the third quarter — but flows have slowed, weakening the bullish scenario.
