Bitcoin is once again making headlines as it climbs toward $105,000, riding a wave of bullish sentiment and strong institutional buying. The surge has fueled excitement across crypto markets, especially as the leading cryptocurrency comes within reach of its previous all-time high. But despite the optimism, there are warning signs that Bitcoin’s momentum could be losing steam just as it nears critical resistance.

Currently trading at $104,231, Bitcoin has seen a steady rise in price over the past month. This rally has been supported by growing accumulation, with investors pulling coins off exchanges at the fastest pace in four months. Over $3.13 billion worth of Bitcoin—about 30,072 BTC—was purchased last week alone. This trend typically signals a belief in higher future prices, as holders shift their assets into long-term storage rather than keeping them available for quick trades.

The strong accumulation phase reflects increasing fear of missing out (FOMO) as Bitcoin flirts with record highs. Many investors, particularly those with a long-term outlook, are doubling down on their positions in anticipation of a breakout. This withdrawal of supply from exchanges often indicates bullish expectations, as fewer coins available to sell can help push prices higher.

However, even as buying accelerates, another important on-chain metric is flashing caution. The Liveliness indicator—a measure of the movement of long-held coins—has seen a significant rise in early May. Now at its highest level in weeks, this metric suggests that long-term holders (LTHs), who typically accumulate and sit on their BTC for extended periods, may be starting to sell into the rally.

When Liveliness increases, it often means that coins previously held dormant are becoming active again, potentially signaling profit-taking by early adopters. This behavior introduces a new layer of selling pressure that can offset the recent wave of accumulation. If enough long-term holders begin to liquidate their positions, Bitcoin’s upward momentum could face serious resistance.

The technical picture further reinforces this cautious outlook. While Bitcoin has passed several key psychological levels during its climb, the true resistance zone lies at $106,265. This price level has consistently capped Bitcoin’s rallies since December 2024, acting as a formidable ceiling that has yet to be broken. Unless Bitcoin can flip this resistance into support, its rally may stall before reaching new heights.

For now, Bitcoin’s all-time high remains at $109,588. But before the market can even attempt to retest that level, the $106,265 resistance must be cleared. If the bulls fail to push through this hurdle, analysts warn that a retreat to $100,000 is likely. Such a pullback would not only reset short-term momentum but also challenge the growing narrative of an imminent breakout.

On the flip side, if Bitcoin manages to break above $106,265 and hold that level, it could reignite strong bullish momentum. Successfully converting resistance into support would give the market the confidence it needs to push higher, possibly toward a new all-time high. A move past $109,588 would invalidate the current bearish concerns and open the door for Bitcoin to target $110,000 and beyond.

Ultimately, Bitcoin remains in a critical position. While recent inflows and accumulation patterns paint a picture of strength, the rise in long-term holder activity introduces an element of uncertainty. The next few trading sessions could determine whether Bitcoin powers through resistance or retreats to consolidate before another attempt.

For investors and traders, the message is clear: watch the $106,265 level closely. How Bitcoin behaves around this resistance zone could define the market’s direction for weeks to come. Whether this rally is the start of a new leg higher or just another failed breakout attempt depends on what happens next.