Bitcoin (BTC) is once again under pressure after a volatile weekend that saw the world’s leading cryptocurrency slip from $105,000 to nearly $100,000, before staging a mild recovery. As BTC struggles to regain momentum, analysts are sounding alarms that the next leg down could see the digital asset test support levels as low as $94,000.

The recent price action has unfolded against the backdrop of mounting geopolitical unrest, particularly following coordinated U.S.–Israel airstrikes on Iranian targets. This escalation injected fresh uncertainty into global markets, fueling a broad risk-off move that hit digital assets especially hard.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $102,000, a modest bounce from the weekend low of just under $100K. However, analysts suggest the rebound may lack staying power.

A Breakdown in Bullish Momentum

According to on-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci, Bitcoin is showing clear signs of weakening momentum. One of the primary red flags lies in BTC’s position relative to the Fair Value Range Profile (FVRP) intense swap zone, which sits around $95,000. This is a key area where historically large volumes of BTC have changed hands, forming a consensus price range.

Bitcoin’s current price below this zone suggests that it’s now trading beneath its fair value range. This dynamic often invites increased selling pressure, especially as traders look to cut losses or exit positions. Adding to the concern, BTC has now failed twice in recent weeks to close above $105,000, which further solidifies that level as short-term resistance.

Technical Weakness Signals Further Downside

BTC’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), a widely used momentum indicator, has also dropped to 41.59, reflecting increasing bearish pressure. The RSI is now well below the neutral 50 line and continues to trend beneath its 14-day moving average, a sign that sellers remain in control.

Analysts argue that if BTC continues on this path, the logical next stop is the Value Area Low (VAL) of the FVRP, which is estimated around $93,000 to $94,000. This level could serve as a potential support zone if the downward momentum extends in the days ahead.

Leverage Signals Are Flashing Red

Beyond technical analysis, derivatives data is also painting a bearish picture. Metrics from Checkonchain reveal that Bitcoin has entered a leveraged sell-off zone. Open Interest has risen, while price has dropped—a classic sign that the market is overcrowded with leveraged positions vulnerable to liquidation.

Unless there’s a surprise short squeeze or a surge in spot demand, the heightened leverage poses continued downside risk. This imbalance is often unsustainable, and without stronger buy-side support, the market could unwind further.

Network Metrics Highlight Demand Gap

The bearish outlook is further reinforced by Bitcoin’s rising Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio, which has jumped to 60.9. This ratio compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its transaction volume. A high NVT Ratio often suggests that prices are rising faster than underlying activity on the network, signaling overvaluation.

In simple terms, Bitcoin’s recent bounce appears to be lacking in organic, transaction-driven demand. When NVT spikes, it’s frequently followed by price retracements as the hype cools and volume fails to keep pace with valuation.

Cautious Optimism Amid the Bear Case

Despite the gloomy signals, some traders remain cautiously optimistic. The brief recovery from $100K back to $102K shows that buyers are still present—albeit tentatively. If short positions begin to unwind and sentiment stabilizes, BTC could reclaim the $104,000 level in the near term.

Still, most indicators now point to a fragile market structure. With geopolitical fears rising, leveraged trading activity increasing, and network demand weakening, Bitcoin may continue to drift lower unless a strong catalyst triggers a shift in momentum.

If current trends persist, $94,000 could be the next critical battleground for bulls and bears alike.