Bitcoin has once again surged past the $100,000 mark, reigniting excitement among investors and crypto enthusiasts. But according to financial analyst Tomas, this could just be the beginning. Based on a repeating historical pattern, he believes Bitcoin could climb to $150,000—or even $200,000—by this summer. The key driver behind this forecast? A weakening U.S. Dollar.

Tomas recently shared his analysis on the X platform, highlighting the long-standing inverse correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin. Historically, when the dollar weakens significantly, Bitcoin tends to rally—with a typical delay of about three months. And in the first quarter of 2025, the dollar has already shown a sharp decline. The U.S. Dollar Index, which started the year at 108.512, fell by 3.93% in Q1 alone. April added another drop of over 4%, bringing the index down to 100.424 as of early May. Such a notable decline suggests a broader shift in investor behavior, and Tomas believes this could set the stage for a major move in Bitcoin.

He explained that during periods of dollar weakness, investors often seek higher-yielding or non-traditional assets, like Bitcoin, to preserve and grow their wealth. As the value of the dollar falls, alternative stores of value tend to rise, with Bitcoin increasingly becoming a preferred choice for both retail and institutional investors. Tomas points out that previous drops in the dollar have led to significant BTC rallies after a short lag—and based on current trends, the market may be right on schedule.

In support of his theory, Bitcoin’s recent price movements have been striking. At the start of May 2025, Bitcoin was priced at around $94,147. By May 8, it had soared past the $100,000 mark again, jumping 6.46% in a single day. Since the beginning of the month, the cryptocurrency has already gained more than 10%, with a 7.8% increase recorded in just the last week. While the market did experience some volatility early in the month, the overall trend has been decisively upward. This rally, Tomas suggests, could be the first signs of the BTC-Dollar pattern playing out once more.

But why do Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar move in opposite directions? The explanation lies in global investor sentiment and purchasing power. When the dollar is strong, traditional assets and fiat-based savings are more appealing. However, when the dollar weakens, people tend to look elsewhere—especially toward decentralized digital assets like Bitcoin. A declining dollar also boosts Bitcoin’s affordability for international buyers, further increasing demand and putting upward pressure on its price.

While Bitcoin is poised to benefit the most from this trend, Tomas also noted that U.S. stock markets and gold are responding to the dollar’s decline—albeit differently. The S&P 500 dropped by nearly 5% in Q1 but has since gained about 1% this May. The Nasdaq 100 has similarly inched upward this month. Meanwhile, gold has been one of the best-performing assets of 2025 so far. It climbed over 19% in Q1 and gained an additional 5.25% in April. However, Tomas cautions that gold may have already priced in much of its potential upside. If the dollar stabilizes or strengthens later this year, gold prices could face downward pressure.

So, what does this mean for Bitcoin investors? According to Tomas, the setup for a major rally is already in motion. The dollar has weakened significantly, Bitcoin has started gaining momentum, and historical patterns suggest a bigger move could be just weeks away. If the current conditions persist, Bitcoin may not only continue rising—it could break into entirely new territory.

Although no forecast is guaranteed, Tomas’s data-driven analysis presents a compelling case for why $150,000 to $200,000 Bitcoin by summer isn’t just wishful thinking. As the crypto market heats up and traditional currencies face pressure, Bitcoin’s role as a leading digital asset could become even more pronounced in the months ahead.